Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of April 6 2015
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
None of the newer names I listed in the past two Universes garnered enthusiasm or credibility to begin tracking. Nevertheless, please don”t hesitate to suggest that I cover any of them anyway — or any other issues, for that matter.
So, no new coverage was initiated. More so, some coverage was discontinued. If you”re missing an issue that you want covered, you”re welcome to request it. I only dropped coverage of issues that have been pegged at zero and/or trading only by appointment.
This has affected the percentages of stocks above or below their rolling four-week moving averages. Issues that fell to zero remained in a perpetual “down” trend, and never graduated to “flat” simply because their prices had finally stabilized. My great-great grandfather”s health has similarly stabilized. Although, the last time he was seen, I suspect that he was flat.
Regardless, the percentage of uptrends rose, and the percentage of downtrends dropped.
Improvement? Well, I can report anecdotally that recalculation of supports was limited, despite reporting last week that many issues were scraping those bottoms. And more issues have been simmering. It”s premature for this to justify comfort, when that may simply be the comfort of no longer being hit in the head with a hammer.
The proof will be in whether simmering becomes more widespread, and whether simmering can last long enough to become bubbling.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for April 6 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 12 | 11.76% |
| trends* | # flat: | 21 | 20.59% |
| # down: | 69 | 67.65% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACAN | 0.050 | 1.260 | down |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AERO | 2.310 | 4.030 | down |
| AGTK | 0.015 | 0.040 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.360 | 0.570 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.093 | 0.175 | flat |
| AVTC | 1.050 | 1.480 | down |
| AXXU | 0.066 | 0.377 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.280 | 0.570 | up |
| BLPG | 0.120 | 0.370 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.605 | 0.795 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.032 | 0.094 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CANL | 1.050 | 1.570 | flat |
| CANN | 1.690 | 4.600 | down |
| CANV | 2.290 | 2.690 | down |
| CARA | 8.880 | 11.050 | up |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.002 | 0.015 | down |
| CBIS | 0.034 | 0.050 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.750 | down |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.425 | 0.095 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| DIGP | 0.035 | 0.100 | up |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.013 | 0.028 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENDO | 0.014 | 0.031 | down |
| ENRT | 0.048 | 0.100 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.006 | 0.010 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| CAFS | 0.025 | 0.066 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.550 | 4.140 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.006 | down |
| GBLX | 0.126 | 0.338 | down |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.055 | 0.098 | down |
| GWPH | 83.300 | 92.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.020 | 0.028 | down |
| ICBU | 0.002 | 0.007 | 0.011 |
| IGRW | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| IMLFF | 202.000 | 0.292 | up |
| INCC | 0.001 | 0.007 | flat |
| INSY | 53.750 | 59.750 | up |
| ITNS | 0.006 | 0.011 | down |
| LATF | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.129 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.090 | 0.177 | down |
| MCPI | n/a | n/a | flat |
| MDBX | 0.950 | 2.270 | down |
| MDCN | 0.005 | 0.022 | flat |
| MDRM | 0.016 | 0.038 | down |
| MINE | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.020 | 0.499 | down |
| MJNA | 0.080 | 0.011 | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.070 | 0.330 | down |
| NDEV | 0.113 | 0.260 | down |
| NRTI | 0.005 | 0.019 | flat |
| NTRR | 0.045 | 0.110 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.002 | 0.009 | down |
| OXIS | 0.039 | 0.063 | up |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.220 | 0.315 | down |
| PMCB | 0.115 | 0.188 | flat |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | down |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.020 | down |
| QEDN | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | up |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | flat |
| SING | 0.008 | 0.016 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.141 | 0.230 | down |
| SRNA | 0.150 | 0.350 | down |
| STEV | 0.071 | 0.100 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.008 | 0.014 | flat |
| THCZ | 0.107 | 0.155 | up |
| TRTC | 0.165 | 0.235 | down |
| TURV | 0.410 | 0.775 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.490 | 0.930 | down |
| VAPR | 0.030 | 0.090 | flat |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| VPCO | 0.820 | 1.290 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.004 | 0.009 | up |
| XTRM | 0.007 | 0.010 | up |
| XXII | 0.710 | 1.160 | down |
Perfect storm: payrolls, Grexit, early close
We monitored the Payrolls reaction in the chaRTroom this morning.
Overnight action had firmed to within 1 tick of 2064.00 resistance, but dipped to 2059.00 before the release. Its knee-jerk reaction spiked down to 2049 and back up to 2055.00. From this I calculated the maximum rubber band stretch to be 2046.00-2047.00, where either it snaps up to reward knife-catchers, or else it simply snaps to punish them.
And it didn”t snap up. A brief defense of 2046.00-2047.00 resolved down to touch 2039.00. Down 20 points under the pre-release low.
New sponsorship wasn”t responsible for pushing price lower. New sponsorship wasn”t even likely to suddenly arrive 20 minutes before the 9:15 ET close. Instead, it was the fast-approaching close which converted those knife-catching buyers into a mass of sellers. It”s called “capitulation.”
The last 10 minutes was actually a thorough test of Wednesday”s post-open low, whose oversold RSIs required its eventual retest. And that retest targeted at least 2039, which barely contained Friday morning”s Globex close.
None of which matters to the bigger picture. Not if Sunday night”s action retraces enough of Friday”s reaction, to greet Monday”s open from above 2054.50.
Retracing Friday morning”s plunge would at least keep alive the potential for one more new high before the bigger decline begins. Otherwise, the potential to fresh highs would depend upon absorbing the morning”s drop before the close. The alternative to rejecting or absorbing the drop is potentially very bearish.
REMINDER: No Saturday Reviews during holiday weekends. Please add any questions to this post”s comments section. The chaRTroom will be accessible for Sunday night”s Globex open… Have a very happy holiday weekend!
REMINDER #1: I”ll be in
REMINDER #1: I”ll be in the chaRTroom during tomorrow”s Employment Situation report. Before and after it, too… REMINDER #2: Being a holiday weekend, there is no Saturday Review…
Thursday”s open rallied early and aggressively, then substantially. And then it was done. It served the purpose of creating room to absorb selling pressure, without that selling pressure gaining traction. And there was selling pressure. But the selling pressure only tested support momentarily before reversing back up to a prior high.
Buying pressure was otherwise restrained, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. It doesn”t get any benefit of the doubt either way ahead of an Employment report. But a knee-jerk reaction down will need to take out 2045.00 to begin making a downleg possible. Closing above 2064 — or above 2070.50 if tested — would be bullish.
Happy Easter and Happy Passover!
Here”s the recording of Thursday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybryzv
Morning Bias
NOTE: FRIDAY”S DROP HAS RENDERED THESE LEVELS MOOT… PLEASE CHECK THE BLOG FOR THE NEWER POST.
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above |
2071.50 |
2064.00 |
| …would target |
2078.00 |
2070.50 |
| Bias-down: under |
2062.00 |
2054.50 |
| …would target |
2055.50 |
2048.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
|
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… No surprise, no trending.
Narrow, choppy and sideways ahead of the holiday.
Volume and participation evaporate ahead of most three-day holiday weekends. That was one factor which contributed to expecting the open”s trending to be substantial. The delayed recovery from Tuesday night”s dip had only a small window of opportunity, and a long way to go.
It got there.
The morning”s renewed bias-up signal doesn”t require fulfilling its target like a simple bias-up, but it”s a target. And it doesn”t marginalize sellers altogether, but it does minimize them.
So, sellers have been unlikely to regain control, while buyers haven”t been much likelier to exert any more control. A window has opened at 3:37, in the form of the position-squaring window. Getting through 2060.75-2061.25 and 2063.00-2064.00 could tick higher to 2068.75-2070.50 through the close.
Otherwise, there”s no requirement to tick higher at all, and little likelihood of ticking down.