Posts by Rod David
Livestox, March 26 2015
Thursday”s Livestox reviewed the stock market”s current situation, and went into detail regarding Crude Oil and Gold. Symbols included SPXS, USO, GLD, UWTI and DWTI. We also discussed why the ETFs can”t be relied upon for participating perfectly in the underlying”s move.
Then we reviewed the following stocks in this order:
WDHR
EDXC
KITE
FNV
CIG
RIG
DO
CEMP
CLDX
LJPC
MCIG
ATTBF
CARA
Daily Spot… Crude Oil’s new paradigm?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Stopping pessimistically short of touching the two prior days” highs around 1.0265 Wednesday inght suggested at least an obligatory probe up to 1.1075 before reversing down. But the bottom fell out Thursday morning under 1.0975 and extended down to 1.0867. The dip can extend down to 1.0805-1.0815 without reversing the trend down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1190.00 pullback limit wasn”t even threatened after fulfilling the 1197.00 target Wednesday, and the potential for extending to 1216.00 was over-delivered by Wednesday night”s surge up to 1219.50. Thursday did not retest 1216.00, but consolidated exclusively above Wednesday”s high around 1205.00. Closing above 1216.00 would be difficult, but very bullish.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only slightly higher highs Wednesday night continued to suggest the recent rally is weighted down by the need for a corrective dip targeting 16.45-16.60.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A brief bounce to the original corrective bounce limit at 165-07 Wednesday night couldn”t overcome Tuesday”s signal that the rally had peaked already. Perhaps the stock market”s recovery attempt was also a catalyst to pushing bonds lower to 162-09. A corrective dip would target 160-02 so long as 163-08 isn”t recovered first.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Is this a paradigm shift? The 49.55 corrective bounce limit had held Wednesday, and was probed considerably by $3 overnight on Yemen hostilities — which could have been only an extended corrective bounce. But the intraday low didn”t touch Wednesday”s high, and if not rejected by gapping down Friday to form an Island, closing above 51.45 would extend the rally to 55.45 and potentially much higher.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Failing to greet Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength resulted in a reaction down through prior lows at 2.65. The recent range”s accumulation can become quickly distributed if a recovery back above 2.77 is delayed.
Has the danger passed?
Probing positive territory.
This morning”s 2036.25 low bounced back through the 2045.00 open, which was still being tested when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30.
Fresh highs into noon touched 2054.00, which happens also to be this afternoon”s bias-up signal. It reacted down and the 2046.75 bias-down signal was touched just 1 minute before getting to within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. Neither signal triggered.
That hasn”t prevented probing beyond the range, up to 2058.75. It originated during a no-bias environment, so it is “no-bias trending” that requires revisiting the 2054.00 bias-up signal. Often, the consequence includes revisiting the 1:20 print, which was essentially 2049.00.
Just trading back into the noon hour”s range would start to suggest the recovery mode had ended. Extending higher would next target 2062.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 27 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
GDP has less influence on price action that might be assumed. I don”t have precise timing on the Fed speaker schedule. But the post-open Consumer Sentiment should have an effect, especially if it is inflationary.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Janet Yellen speaks
3:45 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2064.50 | 2054.00 |
| …would target | 2069.00 | 2060.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2055.25 | 2046.75 |
| …would target | 2049.50 | 2041.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.