Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Can’t keep a good market down.
Which may be why this one is having difficulty going up.
After recovering from 2041.00 to almost 2049.00 before the open, a pre-open dip touched this morning”s 2043.75 bias-down signal. Barely. Its reaction trended up through the open to attack 2052.00.
Recovering 2051.00 as resistance through 9:45 would have been bullish. Its test was rejected. Its retest extended grudgingly up to almost 2054.00, but couldn”t put together more than a couple of consecutive up-bars. Grudgingly is not trending.
The consequence to not extending higher was likely to be a sudden, steep and substantial reversal. And a 15-minute slide touched 2044.00. That”s within 1 tick of the bias-down signal, which did not trigger.
So, this is a no-bias environment. Which is likely to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. Probing under 2043.75 upon exiting the bias environment at 11:30 would be credible for trending down, anyway. Meanwhile, the upper-end of the range can be retested, or probed, or not even touched while remaining within the range.
Eight hours of sleep, check.
Eight hours of sleep, check. Nutritious breakfast, check. Sitting up straight, check. Pre-market Tour attendance… ummm, hello? Luckily, here”s the recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtymrc
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon”s bias environment had triggered no-bias. But it probed above its untriggered 2054.00 bias-up signal, anyway. That “no-bias trending” up to 2058.75 required being retraced entirely, possibly down to its 2048.00 1:20pm print. And that”s where the no-bias trending”s retracement did return into the close, 5-6 points under Wednesday”s 2053.00-2054.00 close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Rallying into midnight up to 2057.75 came within 1 point of yesterday”s no-bias trending high. A bigger reversal down extended to 2041.00. That has now reacted back up to being almost unchanged at 2048.00.
If, then…
Yesterday”s negative close did not signal that the week”s decline had ended. Neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for yesterday”s efforts, so trending attempted either way beyond the 2048.00-2054.00 range will remain vulnerable to returning back into the range, if not also through it more substantially in the opposite direction. Extending beyond the 2041.00-2059.00 range will be difficult, assuming that either end is tested. Trending from one bias signal to the other would be much simpler and more reliable. This being a Friday, the morning”s bias signal is likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2042.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2043.75 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2051.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Well, that was fun. So
Well, that was fun. So many twists and turns that we had six signals by noon, the meatiest being greater than 10 points, with two bounce limit entries for laddering in more along the way. There are never enough of those opportunities, so we need to exploit them heavily when they appear… Thursday”s close offered no more directional insight than Wednesday”s — each session ended at support. But neither buyers nor sellers gained traction for their efforts, so gapping and sliding/surging through the open would be credible for extending in that direction. Here”s the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvswzcj
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2062.50 | 2054.25 |
| …would target | 2069.25 | 2061.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2052.00 | 2043.75 |
| …would target | 2041.75 | 2038.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.