Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Dead in the water, and here comes Janet.
No-bias on top of no-bias — seems to be a message there.
As warned before the open, if the range wasn”t breaking immediately, then it probably wasn”t breaking at all. That wouldn”t prevent trending, and didn”t. This morning”s 2043.75 and 2054.25 bias signals have clearly defined the range.
At least there was volatility, and patterns with healthy targets within the range. Contrast that to ranging since noon, which may be described more accurately as comatose. Choppiness between 2048.00-2052.00 hasn”t formed any patterns, and no timing window has had any trending to even try gaining traction.
Now Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak at 3:45.
Nothing terribly substantial need be uttered in order to trigger a knee-jerk reaction. But there is no predictability of a breakout”s initial direction from this pattern, or assurance of a breakout, at all — only the overwhelming likelihood that the first breakout attemp (if any) will return back into the range.
And regardless of price action before the close, nothing about today”s session will be predictive.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
.Friday morning”s low immediately fulfilled its minimum potential by piercing the 1.0805-1.0815 target area. Reacting up to 1.0960 is really just ranging around 1.0855, leaving the pattern with no momentum either way.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An early dive Friday to 1191.00 didn”t utilize all of its room down to 1190.00, but could still complete a corrective dip. Its reaction up stopped just as short of recovering 1201.50, which would have confirmed.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Early strength Friday was reversed back down into the recent narrow range, presumably on its way through it for a pullback targeting 16.45-16.60.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday to test the 163-08 bounce limit extended higher quickly to test 164-00 resistance. It was tested throughout the afternoon, and closing back under 163-14 would signal the bounce had resolved down to probe fresh lows.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday”s opening slide stopped optimistically short of testing Wednesday”s high, but later dipped back into its range to test the 48.75 pullback limit. It”s not assured of holding, since Thursday”s close held its test of 51.45. The usual weekend geopolitical risk premium was undermined by downplaying the Yemen situation, so holding 48.75 might be considered bullish.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The past month”s ranging proved it was not accumulative. Thursday”s reaction down to EIA produced a new low close, which Friday”s lower close confirmed. At least a third eventual lower close is required, so any immediate bounce to 2.64-2.69. is likely to fail.
Missed the “Saturday Review”? Get its recording here.
I updated my Feb 24-25 topping signal at my weekly “Saturday Review” this morning. If you missed it, email me for a link to its recording — CLICK HERE
Plan to join us tomorrow morning at 9:30am ET for my weekly Saturday Review. Just click here up to 30 minutes prior, no extra password required, and it”s no extra charge. [pretest your system here]
- ANALYSIS. I”ll update my topping signal that triggered at the Feb 24-25 high. The reaction down since then has created new patterns to monitor.
- LEARNING. We”ll replay some of the week”s more influential repetitive setups that gave us advance notice of meaningful intraday moves.
- STRATEGY. We”re also going to game out the appropriate strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning”s likely opens.
- QUESTIONS: You”ll have time to ask questions and to request instant chart analysis of any stock or market you”re following.
Meanwhile, members can review my Resource page. Especially if you”re new to my methodology, watch and re-watch the Training Session videos (below). Make a batch of popcorn, pour your favorite beverage, put your arm around your significant other, and… sounds like a great Friday night. Check out the bias parameter videos, too.
Training video #1
Training video #2
3x3x4 Decision matrix
See you Saturday morning!
Rod
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 30 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Monday”s econ reports all have reason to be high-profile and discussed. But none has a track record of influencing price action.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Stanley Fischer Speaks
7:15 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2064.00 | 2055.75 |
| …would target | 2070.00 | 2061.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2052.00 | 2043.75 |
| …would target | 2046.75 | 2038.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.