Posts by Rod David
Friday”s dull action only delayed
Friday”s dull action only delayed the reaction to Thursday”s pattern. And since Thursday”s buyers and sellers both failed to gain traction, trending required an opening gap. Well, overnight action has rallied as much as 16 points. Look for the First Trade blog post later, and then I”ll see you in the chaRTroom (linked below) for the 8:55 ET Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/28/15)
It has been a month since Feb 24-25”s topping signal. Despite having trended down considerably, and having stopped trending down two weeks ago, there remains great vulnerability to resuming the decline. Extending down even a little could mean extending down a lot.
Not a little a lot, but a lot a lot.
The major patterns forming were reviewed during this weekend”s Saturday Review. Stock requests from subscribers were also included. Its recording is linked here, and the accompanying chat is pasted below.
We didn”t have time to review any of the setups that were instrumental as the basis for several trades. I”ll do that separately and upload their videos to the blog.
d d: no
David B: yes
David B: i did originally
David B: restart my computer
Miss Kitty: Manual join
tom : so if the bottom of symetrical triangle holds is minimum target 2068
David B: might we be trending down as analysts are lowering their earnings to a point when we get to earnings bad news is already discounted?
Bill G: If a triangle, wouldn”t it require a couple more swings within the range to complete?
julie : thanks for the saturday class Rod. much appreciate your time here
Bill G: I was thinking five legs
Bill G: The fifth wave usually truncated
Bill G: y
David B: unemployment report on fri with market closed does this mean will see more of the trend of the week completed by wed?
S M: This is a more general question that I”ve wanted to ask for some time (I hope that a Saturday session is the appropriate time): Your methodology relies heavily on the principle that the TIME / TIMING of notable market movements is key to understanding the intrinsic nature of those movements. My question is WHY is time relevant? Why couldn”t strong hands take action during times that are outside your expected parameters (i.e., after the bias window closes, etc)?
Mark : is the likeliest here still breaking higher first ?
Miss Kitty: What would be some lower targets in the months to come — or is such projection dependent on the pattern as it goes down?
Mark : do u expect a major move on a reaction to ESR next Fri similar to that we had last month or too early to say that?
Winston Willis: I have a question: how can I take better advantage of moments when you say “and it could go here or there” i.e. volatility
S M: I have follow-up questions, but I”ll save them. Thanks
Mark : need a gap under 40-42 to trend down decisively?
julie : For chart requests: Chips got some news on INTC”s possible/targeted aquisitions. There appeared to be a jolt of movement on a couple of chips that I hold long: NXPI AMBA. could you view the chart/s and give commentary on what you see on the price movements? ty
julie : Additional chart requests: Several biotechs released very good news on their developments. some even jumped up 30% on a single day. However shortly afterwards, there was a lot of talk about the bubbly nature of the sector and time to take profits etc.. and there was significant retracement: examples are BIIB ESPR EW. can display their charts and give your take on any insights that you might have? I entered long starter positions on them during Friday”s range.
tom : Rod on a 1 hr chart of the /es the pattern forming appears to be identical to pattern before last substantial drop. Can you look at that
David B: GPRO,FB
tom : yes
tom : 2100 to 2080
tom : 22nd of March
tom : that patter is identical to pattern below and every leg is very close to symetrical
tom : entered around the 19th
David B: SWKS
tom : please do because every leg appears symetrical
julie : no. amba or nxpi
tom : and the next leg down is symetrical to your targets
julie : near field communication= nxpi
julie : no… fine
julie : was just saying what it was.
julie : yes
julie : ty
julie : lots of short interest on AMBA
julie : AMBA= the A/V “guts” of go pro and police and security servellience camera technology
julie : ty rod
julie : Cyber security starting back up again? Your watched stock: FEYE and maybe PANW ( supposed darling of the group)?
julie : BIIB= very promising news on lowerring the plaques of alzheimer”s= sigtnificant gap up
julie : ESPR had great news on lowering cholosterol w/o statins. huge news
julie : = big recent gap up
julie : EW= another new block buster news. b/c of advances in their heartvalve technology will not need to break the breastbone of patients during surgery. Huge news b/c many elderly patients do not recover from the breaking of the bones
julie : ty rod.
David B: thanks
julie : and this one is my ridiculous casino play: NBG?
julie : lol
julie : very news driven/event driven
julie : ty rod
tom : Rod after you look at chart pattern could you please send an email and let me know what you think
Rod David: Absolutely Tom — thanks for sharing the observation
The Universe, week of March 30 2015
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
There”s no more appropriate way to open discussion about Marijuana stocks, than to discuss Biotechs. Firstly, I”m sure you have seen last week”s special report on the sector here. We”ll review the sector during our next Livestox.
But the association with Marijuana stocks is that Biotechs had a bad week initially. And my report is stating that there are behaviors among the sector”s components of the “last gasp” variety. Biotechs have been a proxy for free money that has driven the broader market higher. They”re also close cousins with the speculative appetite that keeps the ranks from thinning out too much among the Marijuana stock crowd.
So, it”s interesting to continue an observation I made last week, in the number of stocks dipping down to supports and hugging them, but not breaking lower. That has persisted, if not also deteriorated — at least nine stocks required calculating lower support. And the number of stocks at support remained excessive.
That”s not necessarily bearish, although it usually is. But every stock has makes its own chances. PMCB, for example, hugged its .098 support for four consecutive weeks, then surged 50% this week. THCZ has been on a tear. XTRM just came alive. Don”t ask me about MDCN. Even TRTC has a heartbeat.
But be careful with these two widely-followed issues (at least, among Marketfy members): CBDS and ERBB. The high made by CBDS on hiring Gary Johnson had formed a distributive triangle that I warned about at the time, and it”s now in freefall. ERBB is pretty much on its last leg. Meanwhile, a surge in ATTBF would be credible, as it would in NTRR.
OLD BUSINESS: I”m not comfortable with the limited response I got to this question last week, so I”m leaving it open for discussion… I”ve compiled lists of currently not-covered issues. I”ve made a cursory decision with each which to add coverage, or not. Please weigh in if you want to be sure one of these in the list is added to our Universe. Thanks!
List #1
AWGI, FTST, GTWO, IFNY, IIJP, PKPH
List #2
CAFS, DIDG, DVAP, FWDJ, RIGH
| Marijuana Stock Universe for March 30 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 11 | 10.09% |
| trends* | # flat: | 24 | 22.02% |
| # down: | 74 | 67.89% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACAN | 0.050 | 1.260 | down |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AERO | 2.310 | 4.030 | down |
| AGTK | 0.015 | 0.040 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.360 | 0.570 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.093 | 0.175 | flat |
| AVTC | 1.050 | 1.480 | down |
| AXXU | 0.066 | 0.377 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.280 | 0.570 | up |
| BLPG | 0.120 | 0.370 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.605 | 0.795 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.032 | 0.094 | down |
| BTFL (cank) | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CANL | 1.050 | 1.570 | flat |
| CANN | 1.690 | 4.600 | down |
| CANV | 2.290 | 2.690 | down |
| CARA | 8.880 | 11.050 | up |
| CBCA | n/a | n/a | down |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.002 | 0.015 | down |
| CBIS | 0.045 | 0.065 | down |
| CGRW (bzcn) | 0.360 | 0.750 | down |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.425 | 0.095 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| DIGP | 0.025 | 0.100 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.013 | 0.028 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENDO | 0.014 | 0.031 | down |
| ENRT | 0.048 | 0.100 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.006 | 0.010 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| CAFS (fofu) | 0.025 | 0.066 | up |
| FRTD | 0.000 | 0.008 | flat |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.550 | 4.140 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.006 | down |
| GBLX | 0.126 | 0.338 | down |
| GRCU | 0.003 | 0.008 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.090 | 0.174 | down |
| GWPH | 83.300 | 92.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.025 | 0.035 | down |
| ICBU | 0.002 0.007 0.011 | down | |
| IGPK | n/a | n/a | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.175 | 0.237 | up |
| INCC | 0.001 | 0.007 | flat |
| INSY | 53.750 | 59.750 | up |
| ITNS | 0.006 | 0.011 | down |
| LATF | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.129 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.090 | 0.177 | down |
| MCPI | n/a | n/a | flat |
| MDBX | 0.950 | 2.270 | down |
| MDCN | 0.005 | 0.022 | flat |
| MDRM | 0.016 | 0.038 | down |
| MINE | 0.005 | 0.009 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.020 | 0.499 | down |
| MJNA | 0.099 | 0.160 | down |
| MJNE | n/a | n/a | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.070 | 0.330 | down |
| NDEV | 0.113 | 0.260 | down |
| NRTI | 0.005 | 0.019 | flat |
| NTRR | 0.045 | 0.110 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.002 | 0.009 | down |
| OWCP | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| OXIS | 0.039 | 0.063 | up |
| PAUFF | n/a | n/a | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PKPH | n/a | n/a | flat |
| PLPL | 0.220 | 0.315 | down |
| PMCB (nvlx) | 0.115 | 0.188 | flat |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | flat |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.020 | down |
| QEDN | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | up |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | flat |
| SING | 0.002 | 0.011 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.141 | 0.230 | down |
| SRNA | 0.150 | 0.350 | down |
| STEV | 0.071 | 0.100 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.008 | 0.014 | flat |
| THCZ | 0.107 | 0.155 | up |
| TRTC | 0.210 | 0.275 | down |
| TURV | 0.410 | 0.775 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.490 | 0.930 | down |
| VAPR | 0.030 | 0.090 | flat |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| VPCO | 0.820 | 1.290 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VRCI | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| WDHR (anyi) | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI (cybk) | 0.004 | 0.009 | up |
| XTRM | 0.007 | 0.010 | up |
| XXII | 0.710 | 1.160 | down |
| ZDPY | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2065.00 | 2057.00 |
| …would target | 2072.75 | 2064.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2053.00 | 2045.00 |
| …would target | 2045.25 | 2037.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Some people don”t read the
Some people don”t read the book, and prefer waiting for the movie to come out. If that”s sort of why you missed Friday”s post-market Tour, here”s the recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjcbkt