Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.50 | 2077.50 |
| …would target | 2090.00 | 2082.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2074.50 | 2066.75 |
| …would target | 2068.75 | 2060.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Carried away.
Opening surge offers little opportunity to latch-on.
The only way to get through 2069.00 this morning — if not also through 2067.00 — was by surging immediately. And that is the most difficult setup to trade, surging at Monday”s open.
But the open”s surge from its 2065.00 open did start forming a Running Correction. Surging into and out of a running correction has a very reliable resolution. Surging just a little would be reliable for surging a lot.
If fact, the surge extended to 2075.50. Price action since then has ranged choppily sideways back down to 2070.50.
Forming a plateau is the fourth stage of the pattern, the first three stages being defined as surging into and out of a Running Correction. Probing fresh highs at this stage would essentially marginalize sellers for the day.
Extending down first would target 2067.50. A deeper drop to 2065.00 or 2061.00 would be possible, but not likely with overbought RSIs at the high needing a retest.
An email outage at Marketfy
An email outage at Marketfy is just now resolving. You should have received three notifications before this one. I sent the first one this morning at 4:45am ET.
All were pretty important notifications. I”m compiling an email list to use in case this issue were to repeat, especially at such a critical juncture in the market.
Please email me at chartroom@roddavid.com from the email address you would like me to use in case of emergency. Thanks!
The overnight rally to 2069.00
The overnight rally to 2069.00 has retraced somewhat. Only a temporary correction, or on its way to retracing the rest? Opening levels will be labeled in the chaRTroom, as discussed in the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzvtwt
The First Trade… Pent-up pressure, or head-fake?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday morning”s no-bias almost guaranteed signaling no-bias that afternoon. And signaling no-bias that afternoon almost guaranteed ranging narrowly through the close. Which is how the session did play out, but for a couple of minor blips up to the morning”s 2054.75 high around Yellen”s pre-close speech.
Overnight action”s new info…
Like Friday afternoon, Sunday night”s opening blip-up was retraced back into the range. But its dip to 2047.25 reversed back up to fresh highs at 2061.50 before consolidating. Eventually surging to 2069.00 on China rate-cut rumors has been retraced to 2061.00.
If, then…
Friday”s session should be treated as a non-event. And since Thursday afternoon”s buyers and sellers both failed to gain traction for their efforts, gapping open is the only reliable path to trending this morning. Gapping beyond the range of Friday”s inside day won”t be enough — the gap must exceed Thursday”s extremes. That”s especially important if Thursday”s extreme is touched during the open. So, maintaining a gap up above Thursday”s 2058.75 high would be likely to trend in that direction (possibly forming a session-long rally setup), but not maintaining the gap above Thursday”s high could suddenly become bearish.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.75 would be likely to trigger the 2057.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2067.00 would be likely to exceed the 2064.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.