Posts by Rod David
Monday”s 2082.25 bias-up target was
Monday”s 2082.25 bias-up target was met within 3 ticks, so it is NOT “unfinished business above” which would require being fulfilled. RSIs weren”t overbought at the 2081.75 high, so it does NOT require being retested. The final hour”s entry and 3:10-3:20 windows each pierced their prior highs by a couple of ticks while still only overlapping the bias environment”s 2081.00 high, so buyers did NOT gain traction.
All of which would have been pent-up selling pressure if left outstanding into the close. Instead, the a last-minute dip ended the cash session at 2078.00, and extended down to 2074.50 into the futures close. So much for pent-up selling pressure.
Not that the last-minute decline can”t extend down, a lot. But the vulnerability has been greatly reduced. Back above 2079.00 would suggest momentum had reversed back up to resume the rally. The post-close dip could extend down to 2068.00 before suggesting it”s going to try reversing the recovery attempt.
Here”s the recording of Monday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtyrvy
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.25 | 2082.25 |
| …would target | 2096.00 | 2088.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.25 | 2070.50 |
| …would target | 2072.00 | 2064.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Session-long?
Only one timing window has avoided probing a prior high.
Gapping up Friday above Thursday afternoon”s high would have formed a session-long rally setup, since Thursday”s close had trended down.
Friday”s session did not just avoid gapping up. It was a non-event. So, gapping up today above Thursday afternoon”s high had bullish potential for expending pent-up buying pressure.
And this morning”s open gapped up a lot.
I discount a session-long rally setup that forms on Mondays, because the weekend can soften the prior week”s sentiment. I barely even consider a session-long rally setup that ignores a session.
But it is interesting that only one timing window today has not probed its prior timing window”s high (this morning”s bias environment, not the noon hour). One timing window, so far.
The final hour is being entered shortly. Will it probe a fresh high? Having neutralized the upside attraction (assuming it is), will the a reversal down develop without?
The balance of the session isn”t immune from trending back down, anyway. But the 2082.25 bias-up signal should be met first.
Daily Spot… Extending Gold’s reaction, Resuming Crude Oil’s paradigm
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s gap down to 1.0855 ranged narrowly under it, vulnerable to extending back down to 1.0650.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday”s reaction down had stopped optimistically short of its potential. Sunday night”s drop compensated for the delay by sliding sharply to 1182.20. Closing back above 1194.00 would signal a pullback had ended, with potential to retest last week”s 1220.40 overnight high. Otherwise, the next lower pullback objective would be the 1171.00 area.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday launched the expected pullback targeting 16.45-16.60. The target range”s upper-end was attacked to within pennies.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s late probe above 164-04 was rejected by gapping down Monday. Filling the gap back to Friday”s close then reversed down to 163-08, which was the original bounce limit exceeded at Friday”s open. Its obligatory support should also break lower on the way to 161-12 and potentially also to 160-02.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending lower Sunday night probed under the 48.75 pullback limit that had contained Friday”s drop. Back above 49.35-49.55 could be credible for launching another upleg, which would target a retest of last week”s 51.75-52.50 highs.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s shallow bounce had tried to avoid fulfilling the confirmed breakout”s requirement for an eventual third lower close, probably targeting 2.60 and potentially 2.53.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 31 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A lot of Fed speakers are appearing Tuesday at different venues. And a couple of high-profile influential econ reports are scheduled. The post-open PMI report can trigger a reaction when it is released early to its institutional subscribers, and that reaction tends to extend when the data is released publicly.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
(Mon) 7:15 PM ET
Esther George Speaks
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Loretta Mester Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
9:00 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
**Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks
Dennis Lockhart Speaks