Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
It”s payrolls week, and this is Wednesday, which means ADP. The controversial report is nonetheless influential. I would normally say that it gives us some advance indication of Friday”s reaction, except the market is essentially closed then. The post-open ISM number is the most relevant of the day”s other reports.
John Williams Speaks
Dennis Lockhart Speaks
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
April Fool”s, Part A
Afternoon bias
.
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2081.50 | 2073.50 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2081.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2072.50 | 2064.50 |
| …would target | 2075.50 | 2057.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Digging deep for buyers.
Bias-down invalidated.
The pre-open drop to 2062.25 was recovered enough for the open to print 2068.00. The open extended to test this morning”s 2070.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Which held.
2070.50 held again as resistance after an interim dip to 2065.00. And 2070.50 held as resistance through 10:15 to trigger bias-down.
But, wait, there”s more…
Several elements of the open had undermined the downside potential. We had reason to suspect the bias-down would be invalidated — that it would be recovered through 10:30:
The 2064.00 bias-down target had been met already, and attacked to within 3 ticks post-open. A relevant landmark (yesterday”s 2065.00 gap up print) was holding its test as support. And 2070.50 was being overlapped, albeit by legs and not by bars.
A buy signal above 2068.75 had triggered already, and its pullback limit was still being tested. That improved into and out of the bottom of the hour up to 2073.75.
Yesterday”s mid-morning congestion at 2071.00-2075.00 is resistance, and it is pushing back. It won”t be recovered easily, if it”s recovered at all. An offsetting test of the 2082.25 bias-up signal remains in-play so long as the bias environment isn”t exited at 11:30 back under this morning”s 2070.50 bias-down signal… and it”s being tested now.
The overnight slide hasn”t deteriorated
The overnight slide hasn”t deteriorated any further during the past 2-1/2 hours. That”s not necessarily equivalent to stability, but it”s certainly interesting that this consolidation is ranging around the 2064.00 bias-down target. And if it wants to recovery, the consolidation”s upper-end should easily recover above 2068.00 through 9:45 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal… if it wants to. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybrvvy
The First Trade… Retracing Monday’s rally.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s extreme sentiment of gapping up to 2065.00 was not a sentiment extreme. The post-open surge quickly exceeded 2069.00 resistance on the way to eventually attacking 2082.00. That fulfilled the afternoon”s bias-up target, while neutralizing overbought RSIs, without buyers gaining traction for the effort. A last-minute reaction down touched 2078.00 at the cash session close, and 2074.50 into the futures close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Initially firming to attack 2077.00 was short-lived. Monday”s last-minute reaction down became an all night imperative. Bouncing 5 points off of 2069.00 has resolved down to test 2062.50.
If, then…
So much for having reduced the vulnerability to extending down? Although Monday”s buyers had left absolutely no “unfinished business above,” the last-minute dip had begun neutralizing selling pressure. Its overnight extension has attracted new selling pressure — but, so far, only overnight. Rallying this morning will require either already recovering considerably before the open, or else extending further down to probe into Friday”s range. Regardless of the opening level, keep in mind that it is difficult for one-way overnight trending to attract intraday sponsorship to extend the trend.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2060.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2064.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2057.50. Exiting the open above 2068.00 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal.