Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2072.00 | 2064.00 |
| …would target | 2078.50 | 2070.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2062.50 | 2054.50 |
| …would target | 2056.00 | 2048.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tuesday afternoon”s next lower objective
Tuesday afternoon”s next lower objective at 2057.50 was met, after the cash session close. One minute after the cash session close. Its reaction up settled back at or above the ~2059.00 low from 30 minutes earlier.
The break was too late for sellers to gain traction, and its reaction was too late to trap them. Extending down remains possible. And extending down overnight remains possible to recover before Wednesday”s open. Just not enough clarity to be assured of one particular resolution.
But either Wednesday morning contains a recovery”s origin, or else it could start accelerating to the downside. A 3-day weekend is fast-approaching, and positioning ahead of it should should be at its most active. So, Wednesday”s pattern could be predictive of bias into and out of the weekend.
Here”s the recording to Wednesday”s post-close Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjcwyh
Pre-close view… Trapped longs escaping.
This afternoon”s no-bias environment began lapsing at 2:30. Its 2073.50 bias-up signal had held its test as resistance, reacting down to 2068.00. Back above 2071.00 would have given one more chance to a rally.
2071.00 was touched, but not even pierced before reacting down sharply to fresh post-open lows attacking 2065.00. And now that has extended to probe under last night”s lows down to 2059.25.
Lower lows would target 2057.50 and 2054.50 unless 2062.00-2063.00 is recovered into or out of the 3:37 PM position-squaring window.
Daily Spot… Silver’s bottom dollar, Crude can’t capitulate.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s close under 1.0855 extended down overnight to 1.0760 support, still targeting 1.0650.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1178.20 were recovered to open positive Tuesday, suggesting that sellers were losing momentum, but still needing to close above 1194.00 to signal the trend was reversing up to retest recent highs.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.45-16.60 pullback target was fully tested overnight, and fully retraced before Tuesday”s open. The target range”s upper-end was pierced intraday, but closing back above 16.90 would signal the rally is resuming.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Tuesday to attack 164-00 reacted down into negative territory under Monday”s lows, holding a test of 163-08 support and bouncing up above the open”s high to test 164-04 resistance. Further delaying fresh lows could bounce first to 164-30/165-08.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Monday”s last-minute blip-up that had attracted 48.75 resistance was rejected by probing fresh lows overnight down to 47.25. Its reaction up attacked 48.75, whose recovery can still launch at least a retest of recent highs at 51.45-52.50.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s narrow ranging duplicated Monday”s price action, and still delayed the eventual third lower close that is in-play..
Try, try again?
Morning”s recovery falls flat, but only so far.
Despite triggering this morning”s 2071.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, its recovery at 10:30 invalidated the signal. Its potential consequence for an offsetting test of the 2082.25 bias-up signal attracted price up to 2076.25.
But yesterday”s mid-morning congestion at 2071.00-2075.00 ultimately held as resistance. Its reaction down trended tried holding 2070.50, but the noon hour was entered several points lower.
Extending down to 2066.25 stopped short of this afternoon”s bias-down signal. But its reaction up to 2072.50 avoided touching the 2073.50 bias-up signal through 1:20. This is a no-bias environment.
2073.50 was just pierced by a couple of ticks, but it”s too late to trigger. Even if probed much more, it should define the bias environment”s upper-end — until the bias environment lapsing at 2:30 comes into view 10-15 minutes earlier. And back under 2069.75 would start to signal trending down as more likely.