Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 2 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Yellen speaks, and the last three glimpses of the jobs market are released before Friday”s payrolls data. But Thursday”s otherwise busy econ calendar is not influential.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Lael Brainard
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
April Fool”s, part deux
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2073.25 | 2055.50 |
| …would target | 2068.00 | 2060.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2054.25 | 2046.50 |
| …would target | 2048.50 | 2040.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS ,TESTED BIAS-DOW SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… That damned leg.
Complete recovery completes.
The recovery back to unchanged got no further. Rallying to the open didn”t rally through the open, which plunged from 2059.00 to 2040.00. The reaction up held a test of the 2048.00 bias-down target”s resistance through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. But its renewed bias down target had been met already.
A dip seemed on its way to retesting oversold RSIs at the low, but fell only to 2043.00. I did not anticipate price inflecting back up there — not at all, and certainly not through 2048.00 back to 2054.00. Its reaction down to 2050.00 is now recovered to attack 2054.00.
The leg that preceded it — that damned leg, the surge from 2044.50.– can still be rejected by extending under 2050.00 to 2046.50. Any lower would target fresh lows at 2039.00, 2037.50 and potentially 2030.50.
Otherwise, that damned leg can reject the market. It”s rare that price action doesn”t align with my signals in such a big way, and we don”t learn shortly of the external forces behind it.
Exiting the bias environment in positive territory is the only bottoming signal not requiring a retest of the low. And its follow-through would be substantial.
Recovering all of the overnight
Recovering all of the overnight drop was pretty impressive, but it stopped short of reversing into positive territory. And reversing into positive territory is the prerequisite for rallying this morning. Extending higher through the open would still be bullish, but so would recovering quickly from a test of the bias-down signal. Triggering bias-down, not so much. Details here in the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjcwfh
The First Trade… Don’t sleep, you’ll miss it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s 2070.50 bias-down signal was invalidated, but its recovery peaked upon filling the gap back to Monday”s 2076.25 futures close. Exiting the bias environment back under 2070.50 negated the invalidation, eventually sliding to test 2060.25 support. The next lower objective at 2057.50 was tested into the futures close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow ranging held 2060.25 as resistance into Asian markets” opens. Suddenly, “positive” news sent them diving, taking S&Ps down to 2033.50 in just over an hour. It was a tough slug, but the entire drop was recovered to retest 2060.25. Its reaction down to 2051.25 is trying to recover 2054.50.
If, then…
Tuesday”s late break came moments too late to justify hold-short, unless planning to cover overnight, because “extending down overnight remains possible to recover before Wednesday”s open.” My 2054.50 objective was probed by 22 points, but that doesn”t alter my pattern for reversing positive into Wednesday”s open.
Not opening positive would keep alive potential for repeating the overnight drop, albeit not as steeply, and not necessarily all the way back down. Opening positive must still extend, and would be likely to extend, optimally to close above yesterday”s 2076.25 high. In-line with the bigger picture we discussed during this weekend”s Saturday Review (see lower image, basis SPX), closing positive would all but ensure extending to new highs before the next credible downleg.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2057.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2054.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2068.00-2068.75 would be likely to trigger the 2064.00 bias-up signal.