Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2067.25 | 2059.00 |
| …would target | 2073.00 | 2064.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2058.50 | 2050.25 |
| …would target | 2050.25 | 2042.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… FOMC retraced, but is there more?
FOMC reaction retraced entirely within one week.
It”s never the same. And it”s not a timing tool, nor is it context. It”s just interesting that any reaction to an FOMC policy statement tends to be retraced entirely within the first week.
And today, one hour short of last week”s statement that had triggered a 38-point rally to 2099.00, it was retraced entirely to its 2061.50 effective origin.
It has no meaning, other than to reinforce our reliance on timing windows being a reflection of human nature. Retracing it entirely is ultimately more important than its timing, as that”s what proves the move”s artificiality.
Speaking of which… All of this afternoon”s bias environment since triggering at 1:20 was spent “trending” up. Each upleg was resisted by the 2066.50 bias-down signal. And now the 2059.50 bias-down target has been met.
So long as 2063.00 and 2065.00 aren”t recovered — especially if not recovered by 3:20 — the drop”s momentum remains intact.
Daily Spot… Crude and Gold meet their targets, Bonds reject theirs.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight greeted Wednesday”s open attacking Tuesday”s highs, but not probing above them, so there is room for noise up to 1.1075 but no requirement.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday morning”s rally fulfilled its 1197.00 target and the balance of the session ranged sideways around it. The relatively un-refueled rally does make it more vulnerable to a correction, but maintaining the rally”s momentum could extend higher to 1216.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only slightly higher highs Wednesday continued the disparity from Gold which had originally underpformed Silver. Not yet extending higher aggressively Thursday morning would make even likelier a corrective dip to 16.40-16.65.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday initially improved above 165-08/165-13, which was the room for noise above the rally”s minimum target at 164-26. But that already had contained Tuesday”s high, so probing above it Wednesday was reversed down to 164-13, making a correction down likely.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday night”s dip to 47.00 on bearish data already recovered into Wednesday”s open, and more bearish data from EIA didn”t interrupt the recovery, as 49.55 remained in-play. It was tested to within a dime, which is close enough for a corrective bounce. Closing back under 48.75 would signal the bounce had ended.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Reacting down from 2.77 instead of extending higher above 2.84 means that Thursday”s EIA report won”t be greeted from a position of strength.
I know what you”re asking.
I know what you”re asking. Is this multi-session decline going to end at three days? Well to tell you the truth in all this excitement I kinda lost track myself. But being this decline just finished retracing all of last week”s reaction to the FOMC policy statement — the most powerful handgun in the world and would blow your head clean off if they started raising rates — you”ve gotta ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?” Well, do ya?
Today”s low would qualify as the end of a correction of the two-week old rally. Another rally leg to new highs would be next. But extending this decline past tomorrow morning would start to suggest something much, much more substantial to the downside had begun.
During Livestox tomorrow (Thursday) we”ll review the broader market along with Gold (just hit my target), Crude Oil (corrective bounce underway), and your stock requests. Meanwhile, here are recent posts to the Activity Feed in case you missed them.
tamaramessmann — ABX-you mentioned if ABX closed above 10.65 it could have a big bounce, What level do you anticipate it could bounce to? Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — thanks Rod. Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — ABX — This leg has potential to 12.50, but getting through there would target 14.05-14.30
JoB — thanks Rod. the chatter is starting up again for RIGH, so I wouldn”t mind it being added! Posted 4 days ago
guanito — AWGI looks interesting. CAFS – the old FOFU?. PKPH could be interesting too if they get over the FDA hurdle. Some of the other tickers don”t show up on my charting /trading platform. Posted 4 days ago
kit650kr — YO ROD, just read about BIIB Alzheimer”s drugs, do U think they”ve run up too much Friday with a gap to trade them today? Id like to trade them with your guidance. Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
kit650kr — BIIB also biosimiliar drugs the FDA just OKd Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — BIIB — Big near-term resistance being tested now at 462.40-473.50.. So long as pullbacks hold the 423 area, the next higher target would be 538. Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — good to know ROD Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — I want to thank Rod in this open forum. I”ve had a lot thrown my way lately, with NO TIME to engage here usually. The alerts you”ve sent me, even in the hospitals, made us $$$ and put us in better trades all around. Thank you Sir for understanding. Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — ; ) Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — gotta go now again! LOL Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — alerts? there have been alerts? Posted Yesterday
guanito — Hi Rod – How deep a pullback please CRMD? Hi Kit. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — CRMD — If not here around 7.05, then 6.15-6.45 Posted Yesterday
guanito — Tku Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — I have a review of the Biotech sector uploading, very slowly for the past hour, but moving… Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — YO GUANITO……….i”m waiting for BIIB check ur email, new Spawncast Posted Yesterday
Miss Kitty — On the universe for this week, is MCIG at 0.009 a misprint? Should it be 0.09? It”s down big again today but 0.009 seems rather extreme as support. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — Yes, thanks!
— Please click through the headline to view the video”s description. Posted Yesterday
Josey — Thank You! Posted Yesterday
Jo B — thanks Rod Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — Yo Rod, nice present when we got home, thanks Posted Yesterday
KiteGradient — Good vid, thanks Posted Yesterday
guanito — Tku! Posted Yesterday
fennecby — Morning Rod and all.
How does AUDC look to you? Is this a case of breaking out of a descending triangle – first one way then the other? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — AUDC — It all started with the Double Top around mid-February”s high. That pattern”s low didn”t overlap price action below it (before, or after). Then came the Descending Triangle, and now its break. Those patterns have a lot of support at 4.75. So long as it holds as support, both currently and on a retest that”s likely, then another rally can begin eventually. I would caution that this much force to the downside tends not to reverse right back up, assuming that it does reverse back up at all. Posted Yesterday
casjf — FEYE – Is this breaking down or just making one more test to old support before going higher? Posted 22 hours ago
Rod-David — FEYE — 40.85 is one opportunity for the pullback to have ended. But we won”t know that without first recovering above 44.75. If not, then the next opportunity for a low is 38.05. Posted 22 hours ago
Josey — Today a good place to exit BAS or does it look like it has more short term gas in the tank? Thank You! Posted 21 hours ago
Rod-David — BAS — It”s already stretching the boundary of a correction, now testing more resistance at 6.90-6.95. The next higher resistance if not here would be 7.45. Back under 6.45 first would signal that this entire upleg would at least enter a consolidation phase. Posted 20 hours ago
kit650kr — Yo ROD…cruising thru again….what do u think about CBI? Is this a cup and handle? I see low volume…Help. Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — CBI — It is a cup & handle, or was. The handle ended before February”s gap up. The pattern is still bullish, needing a couple of consecutive higher closes above 47.15 to confirm, and needing to avoid closing under 40.30 if things aren”t working out well soon. Posted 20 hours ago
fennecby — (a belated) thanks for AUDC.
and seriously, have there been trade alerts or are we still waiting for Marketfy to come through? (I keep asking because I can”t participate in Livestox and then feel a bit outadaloop…) Posted 10 hours ago
Rod-David — Stop and Limit orders are now available to me as order entries. There is no automated notification to members when I place those orders, only when/if they are filled. I”m working on a solution to that. Posted 7 hours ago
fennecby — and additionally – I”d love a target on PLUS500 (London) on a break of the recent high.
http://www.4-traders.com/PLUS500-LTD-13705514/c… Posted 7 hours ago
Rod David — PLUS500 — A rough calculation of the next higher target is 796.50 (assuming this recent dip is soon resolved to fresh highs above the 723 area). Posted 6 hours ago
fennecby — thanks Rod (for the update on alerts as well). Posted 6 hours ago
fennecby — what”s your view on BLRX? On the day of your last review it announced some funding at 2$ and got hammered. Where would you think re-entry could be justified? Posted 4 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — BLRX — Probably more like when than where, and that would be after the shock to the system has been processed without closing under 1.75. Closing above 2.50 might suggest that already happened. Posted 4 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. Posted 4 hours ago
Josey — Rod, what would be your pattern read on MNKD? I was thinking it will pop but I”m also thinking it needs to make a new low? Thank You! Posted 3 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — MNKD — It probably needs to test 4.85, and maybe even 4.40 before being able to consider recovering. Back above 6 could start to suggest the pullback had ended already. Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — EDXC — Big rally recently ion a tout, and I wanted to point out there is even bigger resistance at .049. Closing above it could extend the bounce to .07. Meanwhile, .049 is big resistance
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 26 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s calendar is busy. The focus on Fed speakers continues, but there isn”t anything very influential to price action otherwise.
James Bullard Speaks
4:35 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Dennis Lockhart Speaks
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET