Posts by Rod David
No-bias rejected.
Holding the bias-down signal earlier didn”t prevent breaking it later.
I had noted in the chaRTroom that exiting the bias environment above or below 2079.50 would be worth 12 quick points, either exploding up to 2091.00, or else plunging much closer to retracing all of last week”s FOMC reaction.
The bias environment exit at 11:30 slid down sharply to 2067.00.
How did this happen, if holding a test of the 2079.50 bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal? Every signal can be invalidated. But there”s more to this than that.
Not only was this morning”s signal invalidated, so was its improvement. I”m referring to the extra gain past 10:15. That made it more difficult to invalidate whatever had been signaled at 10:15. Now the bias environment had to be exited under the open”s 2078.50 low, and not only under the bias-down signal.
These are pretty serious sellers. They”ve already overcome accumulation that has left outstanding two pieces of unfinished business above. And now they”ve also broken the uptrend since March 11”s 2030.50 low.
I”ve already begun describing the character and consequences of what to expect. Be sure to attend the post-market Wrap for a review.
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.00 | 2076.50 |
| …would target | 2089.25 | 2081.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2074.75 | 2066.50 |
| …would target | 2068.00 | 2059.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Found a floor?
Thanks to probing another fresh low before the open, we discovered something during the Market Tour that wasn”t known before publishing Friday Trade in the blog. That new information wasn”t really new — it is yesterday afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target. And the new pre-open low made 2088.75 influential and predictive if tested during the open.
Firming into the open did extend to test 2088.75. It held. It not only held, but its test quickly reversed price back down to the 2083.50 area, and then soon down to a test of the 2079.50 bias-down signal.
The test held through 10:15 to trigger “no-bias.” And having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2091.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
There”s no timing element to that. Yesterday morning”s opening dip earned the same .But this morning”s signal is already productive (extending higher than at 10:15. Invalidating its target would require exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under 1179.50.
Back above 2083.50 would put the upside back into play. Otherwise, the 2091.00 will become “unfinished business above.”
A blip-down to 2081.50 was
A blip-down to 2081.50 was already reacting up ahead of the Durable Goods report. The bounce has extended to attack the earlier 2088.25 high. The preliminary 9:45 level at 2092.75 that I listed in First Trade is still relevant. But watch the result of testing 2088.75, too — assuming it is touched. Here”s more on that in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjcjkx
The First Trade… Still missing the rocket.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s bias environment was the session”s only uptrend. The balance of the session trended, too, but only back down to fresh lows. More “unfinished business above” was left outstanding, this time at 2102.00 as an offsetting test of the morning”s bias-down signal. The afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target was met, along with its 2083.50 extended target.
Overnight action”s new info…
Choppy action pierced a fresh low momentarily down to 2082.75. That only returned to the 2085.00 area. More recently the choppiness has tried piercing above 2088.00. Those efforts have only returned to the 2084.00-2085.00 area, too.
If, then…
Sellers didn”t gain traction for yesterday”s efforts. Their targets were met and held through relevant timing windows. The last drop to fresh lows waited until after the last two timing windows that would have given sellers traction. So it is assumed by the late sellers” timing that the next leg will be sponsored by strong hands that reverse the downtrend back up, or else extend it down more aggressively. Either one should begin by gapping — whether up above Tuesday afternoon”s high to reject its late extension down, or down below last Thursday afternoon”s low whose upper-end had caused Tuesday”s late extension down to stop.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2092.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2091.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Triggering the 2079.50 bias-down would be unlikely without also gapping down under it, although exiting the open under 2083.50 could extend down enough anyway.