Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2098.50 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2103.50 | 2096.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2087.00 | 2079.50 |
| …would target | 2080.50 | 2073.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tuesday afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target
Tuesday afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target could have been the drop”s low. Maybe it was. A probe under it was largely recovered, but never reversed back up. Lower lows were probed down to Thursday afternoon”s “lower prior highs in the 2083.50 area.
So, how would trading down to 2083.00 qualify 2088.75 as the low? Because that last downleg began after 3:20, which is too late to be sponsored by strong hands. Recovering its 2091.00 origin at (or before) Wednesday”s open would reject the late extra dip. That would be appropriate if the drop were only a detour along the path to “unfinished business above” at 2102.00 and 2010.25.
We don”t yet know whether the drop is just a detour. If it intends to retrace the rest of last Wednesday”s FOMC reaction to 2061.50, then it should start by gapping down under 2079.50. Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthzzwh
Pre-close view… Detour gaining traction.
Sellers haven”t yet gained traction for today”s effort.
This afternoon”s bias environment was exited at 2:30 at 2087.50 under the noon hour”s 2091.25 low. Sellers would have gained traction by entering the final hour under 2087.50. But it was still being overlapped at 2088.00.
There”s still a proxy.
Trending down to fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would do what the final hour”s entry did not, and confirm that sellers are gaining traction. Otherwise, all of today”s selling pressure will have been satisfied. Gapping down tomorrow would be the only way to resume the decline.
The likelihood for having retraced last Wednesday afternoon”s FOMC reaction within one week is quickly approaching. Fulfilling outstanding upside objectives at 2102.00 and 2110.25 first would only make the downside attraction more difficult. Fulfilling the downside attraction first would make the upside more difficult.
Recovering today to close positive would make the upside likelier, first. And currently the 3:10-3:20 timing window is being entered on a bounce up to 2091.00.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gappingup above Monday”s 1.0965 highs tested 1.1040 before reversing back down into into Tuesday”s range to 1.0900. Closing above 1.0925 would be likely to retest Tuesday”s highs up to 1.1075. Under 1.0900 would suggest the upside momentum had lapsed, and under 1.0855 would reverse momentum down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Higher highs Tuesday morningup to 1194.50 continued to confirm the 1197.00 target remains in-play. And extending higher without any meaningful retracement also suggests the target”s test launch at least a corrective dip.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s high held a touch of Monday”s 17.00 high, which did not include any trending effort, suggesting a greater vulnerability to some sort of corrective dip of some sort.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
This leg”s minimum objective beginning at 164-26 was met Tuesday morning. Back under 164-00 would target 163-16 and probably also 162-00. Meanwhile, there is room above for noise up to 165-08. Closing above 165-14 would trigger a new upleg.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight up to 48.55 further suggested Monday”s bullish setup targeting 49.55 is valid. Its reaction down Tuesday held “lower prior highs” down to the 47.20 area. Further upside probably won”t tolerate dipping any deeper first.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight to test 2.77 resistance before Tuesday”s open was extended several pennies higher. The ongoing range can”t tolerate a fresh low at this point, which would be likelier to become a new downleg. And not yet extending Tuesday”s bounce Wednesday to close back above 2.84 would greet Thursday”s EIA report from a position of weakness — or, at least, not from a position of strength.
A la carte decline suggests something new afoot.
Two higher objectives being ignored by an active sell signal./
This afternoon”s 2094.00 bias-down signal triggered. The morning”s attack on 2101.00 was retraced during the noon hour down to 2096.00, and now the afternoon”s 2088.75 bias-down target is being tested.
All, despite higher objectives having been put into play yesterday morning and this morning (2010.25 and 2002.00).
This doesn”t happen often, triggering a contrary bias while an opposing bias remains outstanding. When it has happened previously, it has been only temporary. And it has been because of a new story — and not because of new developments in a pre-existing story.
So, a bearish development in the Greece drama wouldn”t be responsible, because that story pre-existed the higher objectives being put into play.
Having tested this afternoon”s bias-down target, exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back above its 2094.00 bias-down signal would be bullish. Otherwise, holding bounce limits would allow the drop to extend down to 2083.50.