Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 25 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday”s Durable Goods number is highly reliable for triggering price action. Watch for volatility to be inhibited before the release.
Charles Evans Speaks
6:30 AM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.75 | 2102.00 |
| …would target | 2116.25 | 2108.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2101.75 | 2094.00 |
| …would target | 2096.50 | 2088.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… So, can we rocket, now?
Fresh lows hold the bias-down signal”s support.
The pre-open drop from 2101.00 extended down through the open to 2090.50. That”s under the 2091.75 overnight low. It”s also under the 2092.50 bias-down signal.
And it was reversed back up into positive territory. Through 10:15.
This a no-bias environment. And having held a test of the bias-down signal, and offsetting test of the 2102.00 bias-up signal is in-play.
Bouncing that high at this stage would likely probe into yesterday”s range up to 2103.75. And that”s so near yesterday”s high — which was itself already a retest of Friday”s high — that probing any higher would put into play fresh highs.
Like, yesterday”s unfinished business outstanding at 2010.25.
I continue viewing this range as more vulnerable to probing fresh highs than to reversing the trend down. Meanwhile, it”s pretty important that 2096.00 continue to hold as support, recovering from inappropriately-timed tests under it.
So, how”s that “Reset to
So, how”s that “Reset to rocket up” coming? Yesterday”s last-minute slide had returned to its 2101.00 origin. But that recovery has melted away, A pre-open slide returned to yesterday”s 2094.25 last-minute low. And lower. Recovering 2096.00 is still the minimum requirement to avoid resuming yesterday”s decline, albeit not necessarily so steeply. More details are here in this pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxmmrr
The First Trade… Reset to rocket up?
Through the prior close…
Surging 6-7 points into and out of Monday”s open quickly fulfilled its likely objective to retest Friday”s 2106.75 high. The balance of the choppy session ranged sideways, until a last-minute 6-7 point dive from 2101.00 extended through 2095.00 into and out of the close. The morning”s 2110.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.
Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow ranging around 2094.00-2096.00 didn”t reject Monday”s last-minute drop. Neither did it extend it. But a probe lower after Europe”s opens did snap back up sharply from testing 2092.00, all the way up to 2101.00.
If, then…
Gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s 2106.00 high would form a “session-long rally” setup. That”s the only path for resuming the rally without being likely to reverse back down this afternoon. Gapping up is not currently indicated, but just opening back above the 2101.00 inflection point of yesterday”s late dive could still probe back above yesterday”s highs intraday. Retesting the overnight lows isn”t otherwise necessary, but they would be unlikely to hold, and more likely to back-and-fill on the way down to retest Thursday afternoon”s “lower prior highs” at 2083.50.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2096.00 would be unlikely to trigger this morning”s 2102.00 bias-up signal at 10:15, and likelier at least to test the 2092.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2104.50 would be likely to trigger the 2102.00 bias-up.