Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.75 | 2102.00 |
| …would target | 2116.25 | 2108.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.25 | 2092.50 |
| …would target | 2093.00 | 2085.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
This morning”s retest of Friday”s
This morning”s retest of Friday”s high was fulfilled too quickly. Extending higher became difficult since resistance was tested so early. That wasn”t necessarily bearish, not without also probing above Friday”s high. And that attempt would have been reversed since Friday”s buyers had gained no traction for their effort.
Not probing Friday”s high meant the rubber band wasn”t stretched, and that meant it couldn”t snap back down. Ranging 4-5 points choppily sideways could have ended the day unchanged at 2100.00, but extended down 5 more points in 5 minutes — Monday”s first trending since the open”s surge.
Similar to the opening surge having held Friday”s high, the closing drop held an attack on the pre-open low. A bigger discount to “unfinished business above” at the morning”s 2110.25 bias-up target was left outstanding. And a “session-long rally” setup potentially awaits Tuesday”s open, if it immediately rejects Monday”s late plunge.
Here”s the visual description in Monday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzctywp
Closing time at the Biotech bar.
You don”t have to go home, but you can”t stay here.
Is the Biotech sector on its last legs? Not the companies, and not the stocks longer-term. But the sector”s ongoing rally has become the poster child for out-of-whack allocation based on easy money. The sector is nearing a time and price point where that will need to be discounted. The video contains actionable parameters for recognizing it.
Sad news greeted this week”s open in Biotechs. One component –Gilead Sciences (GILD) —announced the death of a patient using one of the company”s two major drugs. And both of the drugs may cause abnormally slow heartbeats.
GILD is trading about 2% lower. So is the iShares Biotech Index (IBB), of which GILD is a component. There are a couple of worse performers today in the index, but -2% is about the mean.
Today”s performance(s) might seem contradictory to the gap up at Friday”s open. But the two sessions are no less related to each other than are two sides of the same coin.
And while the index might extend higher, there are signs of this latest round of buying being the last until a major correction has run its course.
In this video, I review the 10 compenents of the IBB index, identifying their specific objectives and actionable parameters. Components are reviewed in order of their weighting in the index, smallest to largest, with specific actionable parameters..
BMRN, grudgingly higher, and being rewarded for its trouble.
MYL, established, extended and dull.
ILMN, only attacking resistance, which at least doesn”t point down.
ALXN, all broken out, with nowhere to go.
VRTX, unless a dip is quickly rejected, deeper is cheaper.
REGN, this is the one that”s ready to drop, if only to wait for the rest.
GILD, its bad news is quantifiable, so it”s holding up alright.
CELG, if not the best performer, then the most reliable.
AMGN, not so fast there, already retesting its high after shallow dip.
BIIB, laggard making up for being tardy, and being rewarded for showing up.
Pre-close view
Down for the lack of up?
Despite not probing any higher after 10:15 than before it, this morning”s 2110.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” That”s because the bias environment wasn”t exited back under the 2104.50 bias-up signal, which had triggered cleanly.
Actually, 2104.50 was being probed, down to 2101.00, but not below the morning”s range when it mattered.
That pretty much defines the session so far. Sideways ranging, interim dips, but nothing that would give sellers traction. And no rallying. Fresh highs remain likely. Not necessarily today, but the door is open.
Having chipped away so substantially at resistance for so long, the only requirement is that a fresh high should be very aggressive — steep and substantial. That aggressive character should be obvious above 2104.50 for optimal confirmation that a breakout is underway.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday and extending through 1.0855 resistance all but ensures also retesting last Wednesday”s “flash crash” extreme, presumably to 1.1075 so long as Tuesday”s close doesn”t settle back under 1.0855.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s weaker open nonetheless recovered into positive territory, still targeting 1197.00, although closing back under Monday”s 1181.20 post-open low would trigger a corrective dip, first.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down slightly Monday didn”t extend, but its recovery only ranged narrowly around unchanged. Any deeper pullback would likely test support down to “lower prior highs” at.16.45-16.60.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially probing slightly higher highs Monday morning up to 164-16 left potential oustanding up to 164-28. A dip into negative territroy was recovered to range narrowly around unchanged through the afternoon. Closing back under 163-02 would signal a deeper correction underway.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
I announced in the chaRTroom at noon that retracing 61.8% of Monday”s opening dip back up through 46.60-46.75 — instead of extending down to reject Friday”s bounce — was suggesting higher highs in-play. My objective is 49.55 so long as 46.60 now holds as support.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s dip fill the gap back to Thursday”s close and to test 2.77 support was then gapped down Monday to fill a week-old gap back down to 2.71. That must be the pullback”s end to avoid fresh lows that might even become a new downleg. The accumulative pattern is remains intact, but its timing needs to rally through Tuesday to greet this week”s EIA report from a position of strength.