Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 24 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speaker Bullard appeared on CNBC Monday morning, so his comments Tuesday morning aren”t likely to surprise. Tuesday”s two housing sector reports won”t surprise unless they wildly contradict each other or Monday”s housing sector report. CPI may be Tuesday”s only reliably influential report.
*James Bullard Speaks
6:05 AM ET
**Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2113.00 | 2105.25 |
| …would target | 2118.00 | 2110.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2107.50 | 2099.75 |
| …would target | 2101.25 | 2093.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Just enough buying pressure to hold-off sellers.
The recovery from overnight lows had attacked 2100.00 before the open. Fresh highs through the open up to 2101.75 prevented the decline from resuming immediately, which made the decline less likely to resume, at all.
The fresh highs soon extended to 2106.00, further undermining sellers. Higher highs were printing at 10:15, cleanly triggering the 2104.50 bias-up signal.
2104.50 is still being tested while trying to hold above 2103.00. Back under 2102.00 would start to suggest the bias-up may be invalidated through 11:30. Meanwhile, the 2110.25 bias-up target is in-play.
Probing fresh highs this morning would still be vulnerable to reversing back into the range, if not also back under last night”s lows. But the bias-up otherwise remains in-play.
A late recovery fought back
A late recovery fought back to greet the open unchanged from Friday”s close. So long as the open isn”t immediately resuming the earlier drop, it will be very difficult to resume Friday”s late drop, making a retest of Friday”s high likely. Parameters were detailed during the first several minutes of this morning”s pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjcypf
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap up extended to probe nearly 7 points above Wednesday”s 2099.75 FOMC reaction peak. The post-open rally extended through the noon hour. No higher high printed through the afternoon”s bias environment, which warned of impending weakness, since the session was already an uptrending Friday. A sell signal triggered under 2104.25 and bottomed 5 ticks short of its potential to 2096.00, still closing back under Wednesday”s high.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s opening 5 minutes surged 6 points to 2106.00. The balance of the night drifted back down to 2100.00, and then dropped sharply to attack 2095.00 and 2094.00, and now also 2093.00. Each attack reacted up to 2097.50. The latest bounce is retesting it, too — and then some, up to 2098.25.
If, then…
Buyers gained no traction Friday, so gapping up is the only reliable path to resuming the rally today. That seems unlikely with a flat open currently indicated. There being a weekend in between, probing above Friday”s high anyway would get a benefit of the doubt. But nothing would marginalize sellers, and a fresh high would be vulnerable to reversing back down. Meanwhile, not rallying out of this morning”s open would be likely to resume the slide back to Thursday”s “lower prior highs.”
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2102.50 would be likely at least to test the 2104.50 bias-up signal, but exiting the open above Friday”s 2106.75 high is needed to make the bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Similarly, exiting the open under 2096.00 would be likely at least to test the 2094.00 bias-down signal, but under 2092.00 at 9:45 would make the bias-down signal likely to trigger.