Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 27 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
There”s usually a safe zone around expiration that limits econ reports to low-profile inconsequential items. But Friday”s two Fed speakers seems to be a breach of professional courtesy which could impact the expiration session in unusual ways.
**Quadruple Witching
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
10:20 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
11:30 AM ET
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Last night”s Training Session
“Strategy & Tactics” is linked here
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s session was spent exclusively in negative territory. Bias-down triggered late, and after already having tested its bias-down target. But the bias-down target was retested, and eventually probed by a couple of points. Firming through the noon hour wasn”t retraced, but the afternoon only ranged choppily sideways. No unfinished business was left outstanding.
Overnight action”s new info…
There was never any momentum to initially probing under yesterday afternoon”s choppy range. Yesterday morning”s 2076.50 lows were attacked to within 5 ticks. That hesitation soon ended, and the balance of the night has trended back up to now pierce yesterday morning”s 2089.50 post-open high.
If, then…
Yesterday morning”s post-open high formed in reaction to having tested support at its bias-down target. That high was strong enough resistance to prevent further recovery, and to force a retest of the bias-down support. Testing it now can also be considered a test of this morning”s 2088.00 bias-up signal. Not only triggering bias-up, but also gapping up and immediately extending higher, may be today”s only path to resuming the rally. This being a Friday when the morning”s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour, probing Wednesday”s highs is not unlikely. There is no particular bearish consequence to this pattern not maintaining a gap up — worse, the balance of the session might only repeat yesterday afternoon”s choppy sideways ranging.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open back under 2086.50 would be much less likely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2095.25 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2103.25 | 2095.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2082.75 | 2074.50 |
| …would target | 2076.75 | 2068.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Two items: 1. Thursday afternoon”s
Two items:
1. Thursday afternoon”s ranging didn”t close high enough to offer any assurance that yesterday”s rally is ready to resume. Rallying overnight to greet Friday”s open by gapping up would be a credible start, more credible than trying to recover from further weakness. The post-market Wrap recording is linked here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzctzwc
2. This evening”s Training Session begins in the chaRTroom at 6:15 ET. Tonight”s topic is “Strategies and Tactics,” see you soon! Here”s the link:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Pre-close view
Room for noise under this morning”s 2081.75 bias-down target down to 2077.75 was tested, retested, and re-retested. Twice. That effort defined the noon hour, and the noon hour defined it, as the noon hour”s exit rallied 7 points to 2084.00.
2084.00 has defined the afternoon since then. Dips back into the noon hour”s range have repeatedly recovered from 2079.50, and reversed back down.
The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, so entering the final hour even higher would have meant buyers were gaining traction. That didn”t happen. The 3:10-3:20 window can serve by proxy, but that”s lapsing and 2084.00 resistance is still holding.
With buyers having failed an attempt at breaking higher, there is vulnerability to probing fresh session lows down to 2074.75. Vulnerability, not a requirement, as still ranging within the bias environment”s range makes the balance of the session less likely to trend.
One last opportunity to suggest the consolidation of yesterday”s surge is ending would be to close above this morning”s 2089.50 high. Meanwhile,