Posts by Rod David
Post-open review
Another rally”s traction rejected.
The overnight slide to 2060.75 was retraced pre-open to test 2065.25. That was yesterday afternoon”s bias environment low. Maintaining a gap down under it would form a “session-long decline.”
The 2063.75 open bounced up to test 2067.00. Being this morning”s bias-down signal, it is resistance. Not recovering it through 10:15 would trigger bias-down.
In fact, its reaction down plunged to 2059.00, testing its 2060.25 bias-down target. Bouncing again held above the bias-down target to prevent renewing the bias-down signal.
But this is still a bias-down environment, whose upper-end should be defined by the 2067.00 bias-down signal. And while the bias-down target isn”t likely to break lower during the bias environment since it held its test through 10:15, it still may.
This is also a “session-long decline,” since the gap down under 2065.25 wasn”t recovered through 9:45. Not for lack of trying, considering the bounce up to 2067.00. But now all but one timing window should probe under the prior timing window”s low.
That one exception is usually the noon hour. But it would be this morning”s bias environment if the open”s 2059.00 low isn”t probed by 11:30. And entering the noon hour back above 2067.00 would instead invert the session-long decline, becoming as bullish as the setup would have been bearish.
Tuesday”s pre-open Market Tour described
Tuesday”s pre-open Market Tour described the opening sequence that either would form a “session-long decline,” or else reject it to become as bullish as the SLD would have been bearish… CORRECTION: Daily Spot”s coverage of the Euro transposed “1.0650” as “1.0560” — closing above 1.0650 would target 1.0855, as displayed during yesterday”s post-close Wrap, and I apologize for any confusion that caused… Here”s this morning”s recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpzrch
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s rally was good to the last drop. Its gap up to 2054.00 extended higher quickly to remove any concern that its extreme sentiment would become a sentiment extreme. Gapping up to Thursday”s close immediately retraced Friday”s decline, which had developed despite Thursday”s “session-long rally” setup having gained traction. The open fulfilled its 2066.00 target, and the morning”s high 2069.25 essentially fuflilled the leg”s 2070.00 area target. Extending higher into the final hour touched 2073.50 resistance, and a last-minute blip-up stopped 3 ticks short of 2074.75 resistance into the cash session close. Only then did price plunge to 2067.50 through the futures close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sliding into the futures close was extended down through the Globex open to 2064.75. A 3-point high range was probed temporarily up to 2070.00. Its reaction back into the overnight range extended through it to fresh lows at 2060.75.
If, then…
Will Monday”s rally fall victim to its own success? Every upleg met its target, fulfilling that much more buying pressure. The rally still gained traction for its effort by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high and by entering the final hour even higher. Is Tuesday”s session about to ignore that, like Friday”s drop ignored the traction Thursday gained. That”s what last night”s slide is threatening. But gapping down, alone, won”t be bearish — not if yesterday afternoon”s 2065.25 low is recovered through the open. It”s being probed now.. Triggering bias-down 30-45 minutes later could trend back down through the morning, returning to Friday”s lows.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2068.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2067.00 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. (Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 would then put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal). Exiting the open under 2061.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2060.25 bias-down target through 10:15. (Exceeding the bias-down target would renew the bias-down signal, putting into play a lower bias-down target.)
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2082.00 | 2074.75 |
| …would target | 2087.50 | 2080.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2074.25 | 2067.00 |
| …would target | 2067.50 | 2060.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Monday”s rally fulfilled every upside
Monday”s rally fulfilled every upside target, the latest to within 3 ticks. The rally gained traction for its effort, which gives it control of Tuesday morning — so long as an opening dip is too shallow to for a session-long decline setup. Further upside can”t get too much higher without essentially putting into play new highs. Trending back down Tuesday morning instead could just as easily return to prior lows… Here”s the post-close Market Wrap recording, narrated by Burl Ives:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthvxfr