Rod David – Page 1959 – If, Then… Market Timing

The overnight rally is now

By Rod David | March 16, 2015 - 9:28 am

The overnight rally is now testing this morning”s bias-up target. Too much, too soon? Extending higher or not through the open could define the balance of the session — if not also the next several days. Here”s this morning”s pre-open Market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmcwjb

Posted in S&P

The First Trade.

By Rod David | March 16, 2015 - 8:06 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday”s open ignored the traction gained by Thursday”s session-long rally. The open gapped down a couple of points to 2055.00 and then trended down through the morning to 2032.50. The noon hour”s bounce to 2042.00 was retraced back down to the low, and bounced back up to the noon hour”s high — typical Friday afternoon ranging. A late break higher to 2048.25 was retraced back down to the noon hour”s 2042.00 high.

Overnight action”s new info…
Friday”s late failed breakout was retraced another 5 points through Sunday night”s open to attack 2037.00. The balance of the night has rallied. Consolidating just under Friday”s late high into and out of Europe”s opens, eventually launched a breakout up to 2052.50. It has since served as resistance, while this morning”s 2049.00 bias-up signal has been serving as support.

If, then…
The overnight rally got within 4 points of Thursday”s close. Gapping up above it, and also above the 2055.25 bias-up target, would all but negate any near-term bearish consequences of Friday”s session. But remember that greeting the new week with extreme sentiment often proves to be a sentiment extreme, so not extending higher from the gap up would reinforce Friday”s bearish consequences.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2053.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2049.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15.Exiting the open back under 2045.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2049.00 bias-up at 10:15

Posted in S&P, The First Trade

The Universe, week of March 16 2015

By Rod David | March 15, 2015 - 9:19 pm

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week .]

Links to ||
Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

The percentage of marijuana stocks in 4-week uptrends had shrunk a little last week. It continued shrinking again this week, to just 12%, and that”s with the help of big caps GPWH and INSY.

Deterioration should seem odd on its face, since there seems to have been only good news recently — Federal legislation proposed, more talk in more states… Either the massive majority of the sector is unaware of how good things are getting or about to get, or else some other variable is missing from the equation.

In my experience, usually it”s the latter. Perhaps that variable is excessive valuation compared to shares outstanding, which dilutes the good news. Maybe there”s something else on the horizon not so good, or the market has concluded that the various legislation will be delayed.

The “why” is important at some point, but stocks don”t tend to probe new lows right before good news is about to be released. f your stock(s) is trending down in this environment, especially if it”s probing fresh lows, be sure you”re prepared to own it for awhile as it probes even lower.

FITX was a good example of that narrative, continually probing lower and lower while hopes eternally sprang higher and higher. This week brought dire news for it. MCIG may fit that potentially bearish description, too. Some issues trying to bottom include ARNA, CANL and NTRR (again).

Marijuana Stock Universe for March 16, 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week	# up:	13	11.93%
trends*	# flat:	26	23.85%
	# down:	70	64.22%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.

symbol	support	resistance	4-week trend
ACAN	0.050	1.260	down
ACGX	0.000	0.003	flat
AERO	3.550	4.550	flat
AGTK	0.015	0.103	down
AMMJ	0.360	0.570	down
ARNA	4.150	5.300	up
ATTBF	0.093	0.175	flat
AVTC	1.050	1.480	down
AXXU	0.066	0.377	down
BLOZF	0.280	0.570	up
BLPG	0.120	0.370	down
BNRDF	0.605	0.795	flat
BRDT	0.032	0.094	down
BTFL (cank)	0.071	0.232	down
CANL	1.050	1.570	flat
CANN	1.690	4.600	down
CANV	2.380	3.470	flat
CARA	8.880	11.050	up
CBCA	n/a	n/a	down
CBDS	5.100	8.150	down
CBGI	0.002	0.015	down
CBIS	0.045	0.065	down
CGRW (bzcn)	0.360	0.750	down
CHUM	n/a	n/a	down
CNAB	0.770	1.420	down
DEWM	0.001	0.004	down
DIGP	0.025	0.100	down
DSCR	0.000	0.025	down
EAPH	0.013	0.028	flat
EDXC	0.019	0.047	down
ENDO	0.014	0.031	down
ENRT	0.048	0.100	flat
ERBB	0.009	0.013	down
ETST	n/a	n/a	down
EXMT	0.000	0.004	down
FITX	0.005	0.012	down
FOFU	0.025	0.066	up
FRTD	n/a	0.008	flat
FSPM	0.018	0.460	flat
FULL	3.550	4.140	down
FWDG	0.000	0.007	down
GBLX	0.208	0.486	down
GRCU	0.003	0.008	flat
GRNH	0.090	0.174	down
GWPH	89.900	105.050	up
HEMP	.-25	0.035	down
ICBU	0.004	0.011	down
IGPK	n/a	n/a	down
IGRW	0.000	0.002	down
IMLFF	0.236	0.320	up
INCC	0.001	0.007	flat
INSY	58.500	65.200	up
ITNS	0.006	0.011	down
LATF	0.001	0.003	down
LXRP	0.060	0.129	flat
MCIG	0.009	0.177	down
MCPI	n/a	n/a	flat
MDBX	0.950	2.270	down
MDCN	0.000	0.168	down
MDRM	0.016	0.038	down
MINE	0.005	0.009	down
MJMD	0.000	0.015	down
MJMJ	0.020	0.499	down
MJNA	0.099	0.160	down
MJNE	n/a	n/a	down
MNTR	0.810	1.550	flat
MYEC	0.012	0.027	down
MYHI	0.070	0.330	down
NDEV	0.200	0.440	flat
NRTI	0.014	0.048	flat
NTRR	0.045	0.110	flat
OGRMF	0.304	0.615	down
OSLH	0.002	0.009	down
OWCP	n/a	n/a	n/a
OXIS	0.039	0.063	up
PAUFF	n/a	n/a	down
PHOT	0.019	0.065	down
PKPH	n/a	n/a	flat
PLPL	0.220	0.315	down
PMCB (nvlx)	0.098	0.188	down
PNTV	n/a	n/a	flat
PZOO	0.005	0.020	down
QEDN	0.001	0.007	down
REDG	0.000	0.003	up
RFMK	0.000	0.002	down
RSSFF	0.069	0.266	flat
SING	0.008	0.017	up
SKTO	0.000	0.004	down
SPRWF	0.198	0.283	down
SRNA	0.150	0.350	down
STEV	0.071	0.100	flat
TAUG	0.008	0.014	flat
THCZ	0.062	0.080	up
TRTC	0.165	0.232	down
TURV	0.410	0.775	down
TWMJF	1.420	1.860	flat
UPOT	0.150	0.550	down
USEI	0.000	0.003	flat
UTRM	0.000	0.000	down
VAPE	0.490	0.930	down
VAPR	0.030	0.090	flat
VGPR	0.000	0.002	down
VHUB	0.019	0.040	down
VPCO	0.820	1.290	down
VPOR	0.002	0.038	down
VRCI	0.000	0.009	down
WDHR (anyi)	0.000	0.002	down
WOGI (cybk)	0.004	0.009	up
XTRM	0.003	0.007	up
XXII	0.710	1.160	down
ZDPY	n/a	n/a	n/a

Posted in Bigger Picture

Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/14/15)

By Rod David | March 14, 2015 - 12:14 pm

This weekend”s Saturday Review (recording linked here) focused on Friday morning”s drop, which ignored the traction that was gained by Thursday”s rally. That was a dangerous stage to reinforce the decline.

Every signal can be rejected by violating its limitations. And almost every rejected signal becomes an opposing signal. If Monday”s open is extending Friday”s rejection of Thursday”s rally, then it may be extending the decline to sharply lower levels.

This coming week”s known highest-profile influences are Wednesday”s FOMC policy statement / quarterly Fed Chair Q&A, and Friday”s “quadruple witch” expiration. Volatility should be high.

Add any follow-up questions or discussion with other members to the comments section of this blog post. Meanwhile, please check out the Resource page (linked from the sidebar icons). Notice the first set of “Quick Links” that retrieves each category of daily blog posts — no more endless scrolling! Below that is the “Daily Schedule” of where/when to find regular intraday updates. The link to Thursday”s Training Session recording is also there. I”ll announce the next session for this week (probably for Thursday again) by Monday.

The member chat accompanying Saturday Review is below…

[09:31:58 ] David B: Good Morning

[09:31:58 ] Mark : gm

[09:32:01 ] c d: hi0

[09:32:11 ] william serex: gm all good tks

[09:54:50 ] Mark : is retest of 2117 high with OB RSIs is completely dismissed or can still happen?

[09:58:45 ] David B: fed and options expiration this week. you think if the fed doesn”t remove patience we could see a test of the highs real quick?

[10:01:09 ] Rod David: If you have no audio, please reboot

[10:02:10 ] Mark : 2110 JUN

[10:04:38 ] David B: what level we closed would indicate we are going to test the 2110 JUN? 2087?

[10:08:36 ] Mark : do u think euro”s behavior trumps fed”s petience?

[10:08:56 ] Mark : patience

[10:10:05 ] sunni a: good question MG

[10:12:33 ] David B: the dollar rally or decline on a daily basis has been a focus on the market lately. would you agree?

[10:13:58 ] Mark : yeah

[10:15:39 ] sunni a: oil…now, euro…agree

[10:17:56 ] David B: NXPI,CEMP

[10:18:53 ] David B: ORCL,TSO

[10:19:36 ] william : CSCO

[10:19:48 ] tamara : what are the current levels for oil and gold

[10:21:20 ] Joel : CLDX, VRNS

[10:26:41 ] tamara : Thank you

[10:30:11 ] David B: is volume on cemp confirming this rally?

[10:31:55 ] tamara : IBB,AFL

[10:35:03 ] william : Tks

[10:39:28 ] Joel : Yes

[10:40:33 ] tamara : KING,ELP,WTW

[10:43:25 ] Mark : do u see a major top coming on IBB?

[10:50:50 ] David B: so it could see either way a big move?

[10:50:53 ] David B: orcl

[10:57:06 ] tamara : i dont think so

[11:04:27 ] David B: thanks

[11:04:32 ] Mark : thx much

[11:06:57 ] tamara messmann: thank yo

[11:07:16 ] tamara messmann: that was very helpful.

Posted in S&P, Saturday Review

Are you planning to attend

By Rod David | March 14, 2015 - 7:04 am

Are you planning to attend this morning”s Saturday preview? Then you”re going to need this link. Use it up to a half-hour before the 9:30am ET start time. See you there!
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy

Posted in S&P