Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX0 | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2067.75 | 2060.00 |
| …would target | 2072.50 | 2066.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2059.00 | 2051.50 |
| …would target | 2054.50 | 2046.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
REMINDER: This evening”s Training Session
REMINDER: This evening”s Training Session begins at 6pm ET, at the following link (our usual daily chaRTroom). See you there! And then!
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Session-long… and longer?
The open”s session-long rally setup has been fulfilled.
How can I say that the “session-long rally” setup has been fulfilled already, when the session isn”t yet closed?
Because the setup has done everything it should do — each timing window but one (the noon hour) has probed above the prior timing window”s high.
Occasionally, now having probed above the afternoon bias environment”s high, the final hour becomes vulnerable to trending back down into the close. I don”t expect that today, since the latest probe was an aggressive 5-pont surge.
Meanwhile, many session-long rallies continue ticking higher into the final ticks. In other words, be very careful shorting — strength, or weakness — without a hard stop working.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite initially probing fresh lows overnight testing 1.0495 and not fulfilling potential to 1.0430, Thursday”s open had recovered to gap up above 1.0590. Holding it as support intraday would allow closing above 1.0550 to signal momentum reversing up, even if only for a temporary correction up to 1.0780.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s firm open still needed to retest 1148.00 intraday, which was accomplished, but the close was only attacking 1154.00 instead of recovering it. That potential buy setup didn”t complete, but extending higher through Friday morning to recover 1161.00 would compensate for Thursday”s delay. There is no unfinished business below, but not exploiting that by noon Friday would be likely instead to extend the decline.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday without having both probed and rejected fresh lows overnight didn”t extend, and only ranged around its opening print. A fresh low can”t be discounted, or at least filling the gap back to Wednesday”s close, before being allowed to rally near-term.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday”s close above the bounce limit firmed overnight, and Thursday”s reaction to econ reports spiked up to 160-26. The reaction down to 159-00 needed to recover the 159-12/159-24 pullback limit (which was being tested into the afternoon) to confirm a bigger rally leg is underway.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s fresh low at 47.40 had reacted up to 48.60. But despite firming further overnight, Thursday”s flat open resumed Wednesday morning”s drop. Regardless of whether Thursday”s fresh lows probing under 47.00 have fulfilled the required third lower close, the pattern”s likely objective is to probe fresh lows under 44.00 or lower.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, having closed above the 2.77 buy signal only Wednesday, and holding a test of the 2.84 confirmation. The reaction down tested 2.77 as support. Now, recovering 2.84 would be needed to signal a rally leg underway.
Steep, to shallow, to steep again.
Opening surge ekes its way to higher highs.
The open”s 12-point surge was consolidated back down to 2046.00. Sideways ranging persisted until coming within sight of the bias environment lapsing. Just in time, fresh highs were probed up to the 2053.00 target.
The noon hour”s pullback was relatively shallow, but it did test the morning”s lower prior highs down to 2049.00. The dip reacted up, but not enough to trigger bias-up.
Being a no-bias environment, the next hour should be contained between the 2046.75-2054.75 bias signals, although neither must be touched.