Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 13 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday”s only two econ reports are high-profile and reliably influential to price action. Although they reflect different ends of the economy, usually the market”s reaction to the first report tends to be repeated on the second report.
**PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
**Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2062.25 | 2054.75 |
| …would target | 2067.50 | 2060.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2054.25 | 2046.75 |
| …would target | 2049.00 | 2041.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Up, up and a weight.
The 2039.00 open didn”t hesitate surging to the 2043.00 pre-open high and extending sharply higher to 2051.25. Bias-up was triggered, renewed, and doubly-renewed. The next higher target in-play is 2053.00.
And having maintained a gap up above yesterday afternoon”s high, this is a “session-long rally.” Each timing window except one (usually the noon hour) should probe above its prior timing window.
Which is all pretty bullish. So bullish, that it risks coming full-circle and inverting to become bearish.
A lot of buying pressure was expended already through the open. Not exceeding it during this morning”s bias environment would start to suggest it had borrowed all future buying pressure. And that would leave none available to extend higher, or to defend against momentum reversing down.
If not for the session-long rally signal, we would be forecasting a reversal down. Instead, we”re just monitoring for it.
Last night”s rally that attacked
Last night”s rally that attacked yesterday afternoon”s high has extended to probe above it. It”s still being overlapped, so the test can still resolve either way. Having trended down into yesterday”s close, maintaining a gap up above yesterday afternoon”s high would trigger a “session-long rally.” That would be bullish. Having produced every part of that setup but not actually triggering it, that would be bearish. Details were described during the pre-open Market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkbvyc
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s gap up didn”t retrace all of Tuesday”s late break, and the open eventually resolved in a fresh low at 2032.00. Its recovery attempt into the noon hour at 2040.500 failed back down to 2032.00, as did another recovery attempt. The last failure probed slightly lower to 2030.75, ending the cash session at 2032.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
A retest of 2030.75 launched a rally back up to 2040.50. Its reaction is down has tested and retested
If, then…
[FRONT-MONTH ROLLS FORWARD AT TODAY”S OPEN TO JUN (M)]. Yesterday”s repeated probes under prior lows all stopped short of their potential to 2029.75 (2037.00 basis Mar). That optimism can be bearish from a contrarian perspective, making 2029.75 vulnerable to being probed considerably. While its test probably can no longer be avoided, it can be delayed by gapping up and through above yesterday afternoon”s 2041.00 high to try forming a “session-long rally” setup.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2043.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2040.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2037.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and above 2037.00 at 9:45 would be unlikely to trigger the 2029.25 bias-down signal.