Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2049.25 | 2040.50 |
| …would target | 2053.75 | 2045.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2038.00 | 2029.25 |
| …would target | 2031.75 | 2023.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Two reminders… REMINDER ONE: First,
Two reminders…
REMINDER ONE: First, the three-part training series”s first session is Thursday at 6:00pm ET. More info is here:
http://marketfy.com/product/rod-davids-futures-market-timing/blog/1176/view/74924/
REMINDER TWO: The front month rolls forward from Mar to Jun at Thursday”s open. Values in the Bias Parameter table are based on Jun.
Meanwhile, the Jun contract seems poised to roll over a cliff. There are only two times when it feels this way, and usually it is within hours of reversing its trend back up. The other time it feels this way is when it”s about to roll over a cliff. The cliff can”t actually be avoided in either instance, Rather, the market must dangle briefly over its edge, and then discover that everyone has sold already, before a real recovery can begin.
And that”s been the missing element to a bottom, which is that Friday and Tuesday”s big drops haven”t expended all sellers. Each drop has expended buying pressure trying to avoid the cliff, instead of preserving that energy when it can be used for recovering from dangling over the cliff”s edge. May 6, 2010, felt like this. But, don”t worry — that episode was over in a “flash.”
Here”s the recording to Wednesday”s post-close Market Wrap
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/ypyhcps
Bubble, bubble… coil and trouble.
Little, choppy ranges, and very little trending.
Today”s only two trending attempts both touched 2039.50. The first one created oversold RSIs that required a retest. So did the second. Both reacted up 7-8 points. And now the second bounce has retraced entirely, too.
I don”t expect this dip to simply touch the prior low. Its retest should also visit 2037.00. And it”s probably too late for a reaction up above a prior high that might trap shorts.
The only chance at signaling that a bottom might be forming would be to test 2037.00 and to close above it. But that wouldn”t be definitive. Closing under 2037.00 would put into play 2026.25.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The next lower target at 1.0590 was fulfilled overnight, and then exceeded intraday Wednesday to test 1.0515. The next lower potential support is 1.0430.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night”s selling extended Wednesday to fresh lows that tested the 1148.00 target down to 1146.50. The target held as support through the close, which was also testing 1154.00. Back above 1161.00 would be the first suggestion that momentum is reversing up.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The longstanding attraction to probe under December”s 16.50 lows was fulfilled finally on Wednesday morning”s drop to test4 16.25. The decline”s momentum remains intact unless 16.75 were recovered through the close.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher to 159-10 Tuesday night could be dismissed as noise before backing-and-filling or reversing down. In fact, Wednesday”s open did gap down to test 158-00. But another flight-to-quality triggered a retest of the overnight highs up to 159-24. Closing above 160-00 would signal the trend had reversed up, and back under 158-00 would target a retest of the lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s close back under 50.00 was confirmed by Wednesday”s second consecutive lower close, which had recovered back above 48.00 after probing it considerably intraday.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A momentary fresh low overnight was retraced back to unchanged before Wednesday”s open. Then the morning surged sharply, through the 2.77 signal to test the 2.84 confirmation, both of which were tested last week.
Livestox, March 11 2015
Wednesday”s Livestox began with an overview of the market, and of the Dollar, then covered the following stocks in the following order…
SPX
UUP
WDHR
CYBK
SIVB
TWTR
AAPL
EDXC
MCIG
TAUG
TRTC
CBIS
VAPE
GWPH
NLNK