Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2082.50 | 2081.00 |
| …would target | 2088.00 | 2086.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2074.75 | 2073.25 |
| …would target | 2067.25 | 2065.75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Breaking: Senators plan to introduce
Breaking: Senators plan to introduce federal medical marijuana bill. http://wapo.st/1968rTD
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Initial strength Sunday night was neutralized to range sideways Monday. There is no requirement to trend any lower, but the lack of volatility after Friday”s plunge does suggest the next leg will begin abruptly.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s bounce produced a gap up Monday to test 1174.00 resistance, but that melted away throughout the session to almost fill the gap back to Friday”s close. Closing above 1177.00 would signal a new upleg underway, but fresh lows otherwise remain likely.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Neither of the overnight fluctuations into negative or positive territory was detectable Monday. Its post-open price action ranged narrowly, not extending Friday”s deep decline, but certainly not rejecting it.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bounce potential to 156-28 was fulfilled at Monday”s high as part of sideways ranging from the open”s gap up. And it was not rejected to reverse momentum back down. Friday extremes tend to be retested, so at least filling the gap back to its 155-20 close is likely.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Despite extending lower to test 49.00, Friday”s close under 50.00 was retraced Monday. Without confirming the break, now a close under 49.00 is needed to confirm a retest of the lows under 44.00 is underway.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Upward momentum was lacking from testing the 2.77 buy signal without closing above it, and then testing the 2.84 confirmation without closing above it. Friday”s dip to attack 2.77 could have neutralized that, had 2.84 been recovered Monday. But the open gapped down to fill the low”s gap back to 2.71. The gap was probed instead of recovering, so a recovery requires triggering a new buy signal back above 2.77.
Shift in timing, shift in resolution?
Late break higher threatens the intraday failure setup.
This afternoon”s 2078.00 bias-up signal wasn”t even touched by 1:20. But it was barely touched within the next 3 minutes, invoking the grace period. A spike up AT the bottom of the hour was borderline for still overlapping the signal.
It had gotten too late already to trigger a clean bias-up. And it wasn”t necessarily a late bias-up. Was this the second intraday noN-bias signal? Just one instance is rare, let alone two in one day.
Regardless, the spike extended eventually to 2082.50 before RSIs finally left overbought territory. Overbought RSIs makes reversing down difficult without first retesting 2082.50.
And first retesting 2082.50 makes reversing down difficult since exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high would become more vulnerable to extending sharply higher intraday.
Ignoring the overbought RSIs to break under 2077.00 would still be credible for extending down into the close (and out of tomorrow”s open).
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning”s JOLTS can be disruptive, especially after a two days following a surprising Jobless report. Tuesday”s other items have little track record for influencing price action.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
9:00 AM ET
JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET