Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2079.50 | 2078.00 |
| …would target | 2085.00 | 2083.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2070.50 | 2069.00 |
| …would target | 2065.25 | 2063.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
New Portfolio Features — Update
New Portfolio Features — Update —
Availability of this new feature today was reiterated to me Friday. Apparently, the specific timing is for overnight. I”m very excited to start offering a constant flow of trade recs.
I haven”t yet heard back from my earlier inquiry about the system automatically emailing members when the limit or stop order is placed, and also whenever it is changed. My informal polling during Friday”s Livestox confirmed the preference you”ve been telling me all along.
Post any stock chart analysis requests below, and I”ll add more info there as it comes in.
Post-open review
A pre-open surge back to the open”s highs greeted the cash session by touching this morning”s 2074.00 bias-up signal. Its reaction down to 2070.50 forms the lower-end of flat-to-higher ranging since the open. Now 2076.25 is being retested by 1 point.
Flat-to-higher ranging lacks momentum. Unfortunately, bias doesn”t compensate for that deficiency, as it triggered noN-bias. The bias-up signal was overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It was still being overlapped at 10:30 to avoid triggering altogether.
A noN-bias environment is not bias-up with the bias-up target in-play, and it”s not no-bias requiring an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. A buy signal can be credible, and could still test the 2079.25 bias-up target, or even probe it up to 2086.50.
But keep in mind the shaky base where any rally is originating. Even the most impressive productivity this morning will remain vulnerable to reversing down sharply this afternoon.
This morning”s pre-open Market Tour
This morning”s pre-open Market Tour discussed the very recent bounce back up to the overnight open”s highs, touching this morning”s bias-up signal. It hasn”t triggered, yet. Here”s the recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfrbhh
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s gap down on the pre-open payrolls report had fulfilled the morning”s 2088.00 bias-down target. But its 2095.50 bias-down signal never recovered. The first hour”s ranging gave way through the morning to test 2079.25 support. And that gave way through the afternoon to fulfill the day”s 2066.00 target. The cash session close firmed to 2069.00, and futures drifted nearly 3 points higher.
Overnight action”s new info…
Initial strength was soon retraced, and then extended, so far all the way back down to touch 2066.00.
If, then…
Fulfilling selling pressure so near the close prevents counter-trend sponsorship from gaining traction. That all but ensures probing lower lows, unless the open were to gap up sufficiently. Having held the target through one close, probing lower intraday would be vulnerable to recover.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2076.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2074.00 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2070.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2064.25 would be likely to trigger the 2065.75 bias-down signal.