Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Tuesday night”s break lower extended down sharply through Wednesday”s open to quickly fulfill the next lower objective at 1.1125. And that was exceeded to test 1.1075 support. Bounces should hold 1.1125 as resistance to maintain the break”s momentum.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday morning”s slide down to 1198.00 neutralized one attraction below. The other at 1194.00 remains in-play — with potential to 1185.00 — unless 1206.00 is recovered first, and then extended above 1212.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday night”s probe down to 16.07 was retested Wednesday, and had better be rejected through Thursday to avoid becoming a much deeper break to fresh lows.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Wednesday already fulfilled the minimum third lower close that became required by Tuesday confirming Monday”s break. But the decline”s momentum remains intact so long as 158-12 isn”t recovered.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s choppiness ultimately resolved up. Having probed 51.25, there should be very little delay either to extending sharply higher through 52.65, or else to reacting down sharply back to prior lows.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednedsay”s bounce tested the 2.77 buy signal, but didn”t trigger it. That”s as strong of a position to greet Thursday”s EIA report, as it would have been to reject Sunday night”s fresh lows by already triggering the buy signal.
Is this the end of that?
Recovered post-open dive.
The open”s 14-point plunge from 2099.00 had touched its low by 10:15. The balance of the morning trended back up, almost through the entire noon hour — all the way back up to 2099.00.
Actually, this afternoon”s 2099.75 bias-up signal was touched. And it held. The 1:20 bias timing window triggered “no-bias.”
The bias-up target is not in-play. And there is room down to the bias-down signal, but no requirement to test it. In fact, sellers just attacked 2093.00 ahead of the Beige Book release.
If the week-old topping pattern is rolling over, then I would expect another slide this afternoon, potentially to fresh session lows. But if this morning”s slide was an isolated event, then just recovering the open isn”t enough to absorb it — fresh session highs into the close would be likely, too.
Back above 2097.00 would start putting into play a retest of yesterday”s highs, and higher. But time for that is getting scarce, and extending under 2091.00 would all but confirm that a multi-session decline has begun.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 5 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s reports are relatively low profile compared to Wednesday and Friday”s calendar. Jobless Claims hasn”t influenced price action for a couple of years, but has its best opportunity this week ahead of Friday”s payrolls report.
Bank of England policy statement
noon local time
European Central Bank policy statement
7:00 AM ET (?)
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.50 | 2099.75 |
| …would target | 2106.75 | 2105.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.75 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2085.75 | 2084.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Ambush.
The decline had bottomed at 2097.00 a couple of hours earlier, but apparently that wasn”t done to wait for helpful news. ADP was weak, but barely registered a price reaction.
Recovering 2099.00 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have made bias-down unlikely to trigger. The open barely touched it before reversing into a 10-point plunge down to 2089.00.
That eventually worked lower to 2085.25 before popping back up to 2089.00. A corrective bounce has room up to 2094.25 or 2096.50, without invalidating the downleg”s momentum.
Entering or exiting the noon hour back above last week”s ~2100.00 lows would help to avoid a multi-session decline targeting 2060.00 area.