Posts by Rod David
This morning”s pre-open Market Tour
This morning”s pre-open Market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmcyft
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Despite having consolidated for several hours right up to the open, Tuesday night”s pullback suddenly resumed at Wednesday”s open. Potential to 2088.00 was probed by a couple of points before the 10:15 bias was signaled. The entire post-open drop was recovered to test its 2099.00 opening print by 3 ticks. The balance of the session ranged sideways back down to 2092.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging inched its way back up to 2099.00 into Europe”s opens. A dip from there has been recovered to now probe above yesterday”s highs to 2100.50. BOE and ECB have kept monetary policies unchanged. Draghi”s press conference is a half-hour away.
If, then…
If yesterday”s break isn”t the week-old topping pattern”s breakout, then today”s open must reject it. It won”t be enough just to avoid resuming the decline — which would only delay its resumption by a timing window, or two. Gapping up above yesterday”s 2099.00-2099.75 highs wouldn”t earn immediate confidence, either. Rejecting yesterday”s break would all but require gapping up to and/or through Tuesday”s 2105.00-2106.00 close. Draghi”s press conferences have a reliable track record for moving markets, although that movement seems to be narrowing.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2095.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2114.75 | 2101.75 |
| …would target | 2119.75 | 2107.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.75 | 2093.00 |
| …would target | 2089.75 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Trading Plan for 3/5
If Wednesday”s drop is confirmed… then the recent topping pattern shouldn”t take very long or fall very deeply before ending. But it”s still a multi-session decline. Rejecting Wednesday”s drop could instead continue forming a much bigger top.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Wednesday”s break under last week”s lows must be rejected by gapping up sharply at Thursday”s open, or else the week-old topping pattern will have rolled over already.
Gapping up above Wednesday”s 2099.75 post-open high wouldn”t be credible for reversing momentum up. Gapping up only to test Tuesday”s late “higher prior lows” at 2103.00-2104.00 wouldn”t be very credible either. Gapping up to and through 2108.00 would be optimal for reversing momentum up sufficiently to retest last Wednesday”s 2117.75 high.
Not rejecting Wednesday”s break would be vulnerable to confirming it, closing under its 2085.25 low. Oversold RSIs there want to be retested, and don”t offer much support to produce a recovery. The decline”s next major target would be 2060.00-2065.00.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
I want to schedule a couple of overview webinars, for new subscribers and seasoned subscribers. We”ll examine concepts like the Bias Parameters, RSI retests, and Timing Windows. And we”ll discuss tactics like Reaction entries and Setting stops. Please comment on this blog post at least two preferences for day and time that would be convenient for you to attend… Here are a couple of links to review meanwhile:
Entry parameter video, 3x3x4 Decision Matrix.
Wednesday”s post-close Market Wrap recording
Wednesday”s post-close Market Wrap recording discusses what is required either to invalidate the decline”s break, or else to fulfill it:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxjyzw