Posts by Rod David
The opposite of up isn’t down.
But today, it might be.
I often point out that the opposite of “up” is not “down.” The opposite of up is “not up.” Price action can move up, or down, but also range sideways.
Today, that might be different. Not gapping up enough to reject yesterday”s down could instead confirm it.
Wednesday”s gap down sell-off wasn”t recovered before the close. That raised the bar on today”s open, if it intended to reject yesterday”s sell-off. Gapping up to Tuesday”s close was the most reliable path higher.
The gap up probed yesterday”s 2099.75 high temporarily. It was rejected, along with a later fresh high at 2102.75 that stopped 3 ticks short of touching the pre-open high.
Fresh lows into the noon hour touched 2093.25, and this afternoon”s 2097.25 bias-down triggered. This is a bias-down environment, and its 2092.00 bias-down target is in-play. Extending down could even confirm yesterday”s break down, which would point down further into and out of the weekend.
So, is there any path up near-term? One, and it could take the form of short-squeeze, but it has very limited time to trigger. Since triggering at 1:20, this afternoon”s 2097.25 bias-down signal hasn”t produced a lower low. So, whatever was signaled at 1:20 would be invalidated by recovering it through 2:30 when the bias environment begins lapsing.
The recovery attempt just touched 2098.75 (and then spiked up to 2100.00). That can still reverse back under 2097.25 by 2:30, which would confirm the bias-down. Rejecting it would preferably also recover the 2101.00 noon hour high by 2:30, no later than 3:00, to increase the potential for a short-squeeze.
The opposite of up isn’t down.
But today, it might be.
I often point out that the opposite of “up” is not “down.” The opposite of up is “not up.” Price action can move up, or down, but also range sideways.
Today, that might be different. Not gapping up enough to reject yesterday”s down could instead confirm it.
Wednesday”s gap down sell-off wasn”t recovered before the close. That raised the bar on today”s open, if it intended to reject yesterday”s sell-off. Gapping up to Tuesday”s close was the most reliable path higher.
The gap up probed yesterday”s 2099.75 high temporarily. It was rejected, along with a later fresh high at 2102.75 that stopped 3 ticks short of touching the pre-open high.
Fresh lows into the noon hour touched 2093.25, and this afternoon”s 2097.25 bias-down triggered. This is a bias-down environment, and its 2092.00 bias-down target is in-play. Extending down could even confirm yesterday”s break down, which would point down further into and out of the weekend.
So, is there any path up near-term? One, and it could take the form of short-squeeze, but it has very limited time to trigger. Since triggering at 1:20, this afternoon”s 2097.25 bias-down signal hasn”t produced a lower low. So, whatever was signaled at 1:20 would be invalidated by recovering it through 2:30 when the bias environment begins lapsing.
The recovery attempt just touched 2098.75 (and then spiked up to 2100.00). That can still reverse back under 2097.25 by 2:30, which would confirm the bias-down. Rejecting it would preferably also recover the 2101.00 noon hour high by 2:30, no later than 3:00, to increase the potential for a short-squeeze.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 6 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Another Fed speaker overnight, and then Friday morning”s Employment Situation report, end the week.
John Williams Speaks
11:15 PM ET
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.25 | 2102.50 |
| …would target | 2109.75 | 2108.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2098.75 | 2097.25 |
| …would target | 2093.75 | 2092.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
.
Post-open review
The 2100.00 opening print gapped up 4-1/2 points from yesterday”s close, and began sliding immediately. The gap back to yesterday”s close was filled at the 2096.00 low.
Its reaction up was overlapping the 2101.75 bias-up signal at 10:15, which invoked the 15-minute grace period. But rather than resolve the test, 2101.75 was being overlapped at 10:30.
This is a noN-bias environment. It is not a bias-up environment, which would have put into play the bias-up target. It is not a no-bias environment, which would have put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. It is a noN-bias environment, which is not influenced by any bias parameter.
Gapping up is the only credible start to retesting last week”s highs. But the gap up was too shallow to require reject yesterday”s break, which would actually require testing last week”s highs. But until a sell signal or distributive pattern were formed and triggered, I”m giving the upside a benefit of the doubt.