Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.75 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2112.50 | 2111.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2097.00 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2089.50 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Trading Plan for 3/6
If two days of buying pressure can”t prevent a fresh low… then who”s going to defend against a sell-off? Of course, it hasn”t been two entire days of buying pressure. But Wednesday”s downleg during its first 15 minutes was then retraced through the balance of the session. Thursday was spent almost entirely in positive territory. But neither effort gained traction. So, another downleg at Friday”s open would be difficult to absorb..
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Gapping up Thursday was too shallow to be reliable for extending higher. Although it was rejected into negative territory, that proved only temporary. But spending the entire session in positive territory isn”t necessarily bullish, not when Wednesday”s 2099.00-2099.75 highs restrained every rally attempt.
The optimism is ineffectual. That”s not necessarily bearish. The next session”s early sell signal would be that much more credible. Rallying first would be that much likelier to reverse back down entirely. But each initial is as likely as the other.
Thursday”s session didn”t invalidate Wednesday”s break lower, and made it more difficult to be invalidated. What could have been achieved by gapping up a little Thursday must now be done by gapping up a lot. And there is upward traction that can be relied upon Friday to attract a recovery after initially trending down.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
The monthly Employment Situation report is released pre-open Friday. And being a Friday, the morning”s bias signal is likely to persist through the noon hour. Being so near the highs, there is potential for a new high close, which would affect the topping pattern. The same Friday Factors could exacerbate an initially negative reaction down.
Thursday”s post-close Market Wrap recording
Thursday”s post-close Market Wrap recording is here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxjczf
Steep, or stop.
Bias-down rejection attempt might be rejected, too.
Despite triggering bias-down cleanly under 2097.25 at 1:20, the bias environment was exited at 2:30 above the signal. Also recovering the noon hour”s 2101.00 high by then would have been optimal. It wasn”t.
So, the original bias-down signal remains capable of performing. And since the interim bounce did test 2101.00 — albeit too late to be influential — reinstating the bias-down today would have a lot of room to fall, and little time to do it.
Trending under 2098.00 or back above 2101.00 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window (now open) would be likely to extend int that direction. Otherwise, ranging sideways is possible, paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of tomorrow”s Employment Situation report.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday”s close under the descending triangle”s 1.1125 target to also test its next lower support at 1.1075 was then retraced back up to attack 1.1125 at Thursday”s open. Then came Draghi, whose comments sparked a momentary pierce of 1.1000. Being a second consecutive lower close from a multi-session trading range, at least a third eventual lower close is now required.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An early test of 1206.00 resistance was reversed down sharply Thursday morning to probe back under 1197.50, still targeting 1194.00 if not also 1188.00, so long as 1201.50 and 1204.00 aren”t recovered.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday morning”s rally was retraced entirely, but only probed slightly negative territory. The vulnerability remains lower.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s opening dip to fresh lows reacted up quickly back into Wednesday”s range, but only to attack the 159-12 bounce limit before ranging narrowly around unchanged through the afternoon…. There is no unfinished business below outstanding ahead of Friday”s pre-open Employment Situation report, but that”s not a position of strength that would have been indicated above 159-24 and 160-00.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming overnight had extended Wednesday”s close above 51.25 to within a quarter of the 52.65 confirmation. The gap was quickly retraced but the balance of the session only fluctuated narrowly around unchanged. Back under 50.00 would start to signal a new downleg underway.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s test of the 2.77 buy signal wasn”t decisive, requiring Thursday to confirm by closing above 2.84. A positive reaction to the EIA report tested it, similar to the prior day”s 2.77 test, neither rejecting it nor recovering it decisively.