Posts by Rod David
Livestox will begin today at
Livestox will begin today at 12:30pm ET. Login at the following link. Below that is recent stock chart analysis requests on the Activity Feed. It won”t be seen by the search function if I don”t repost it as an Alert. It won”t be seen by you if you don”t check in now and then. We worry about you. And sit up straight.
12:30 ET LIVESTOX
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Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.25 | 2082.75 |
| …would target | 2089.50 | 2088.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2079.25 | 2077.75 |
| …would target | 2073.25 | 2071.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The weighting is the hardest part.
Pre-open dive is finally resuming.
The reaction to this morning”s Employment Situation report was a 3-1/2 point blip-up to touch yesterday”s 2103.50 pre-open high. And then an 18-point slide that attacked Wednesday”s 2085.25 low to within 3 ticks.
The next hour ranged flat-to-higher up to 2094.00. That”s well under the 2095.50 bias-down signal, which triggered cleanly. But the 2088.00 bias-down target had been met, and held, so the bias-down signal was not renewed.
Usually, holding a test of the bias-down target through 10:15 will not trend down further during the bias environment — if at all. The exceptions tend to be on Fridays. In fact, the 2086.00 pre-open low is now being probed. Wednesday”s low is finally being retested, too, down to 2082.00.
Stopping optimistically short of touching it before the open, from a contrarian perspective, is bearish. Trending up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, through the 10:15 bias timing window, and through the entire first hour — but not recovering a relevant level like the bias-down signal — is also bearish from a contrarian perspective. And as described in previous posts, the past two days of bouncing from Wednesday”s opening plunge, also without gaining traction, is bearish.
This being a Friday, selling can become exacerbated. RSIs are oversold into a test of prior lows at 2082.00 and might produce a temporary bounce. The next lower objective in-play is 2079.25. If it”s tested and held by noon, then that might be the session low. Otherwise, vulnerability for extending to 2066.50 remains in-play.
Big surprise in this morning”s
Big surprise in this morning”s Employment Situation report. Bigger surprise after it. The 2-3 point knee-jerk reaction up was reversed down 14 points. All is not lost, not yet. Parameters were discussed during this morning”s Market Tour, recorded in front of a live studio audience:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxjcjf
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s gap up didn”t reach the 2103.50 pre-open high before reversing to fill the gap back down toward Wednesday”s 2096.00 close. Its reaction up made a lower high before reversing again into the noon hour, and almost 3 points into negative territory. Its recovery spent the balance of the session ranging choppily in positive territory, centered around Wednesday”s 2099.00-2099.75 highs.
Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow sideways ranging between 2098.00-2101.00 largely defined price action until only moments ago. A sudden 3-1/2 point surge from between 2099.00-2099.75 just attacked yesterday”s 2103.50 pre-open high to within 2 ticks.
If, then…
Overnight fluctuation ahead of the monthly Employment Situation report is often only noise. Sentiment tends to be contrarian to the actual reaction. Yesterday”s range was too narrow relative to the prior day, and this pre-open surge is too late relative to the news, for either to be considered reliably as sentiment. Maintaining a gap up would have potential back to the highs, or at least to launch a sizable morning rally. But a gap up would be vulnerable to reversing down until outlasting the opening 15 minutes of volatility. And gapping down would be vulnerable to extending through the close.
First Trade…
There are no preliminary levels ahead of an Employment Situation report, which is due momentarily.