Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2115.00 | 2112.75 |
| …would target | 2120.75 | 2118.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2104.50 | 2102.25 |
| …would target | 2098.00 | 2095.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Trading Plan for 2/27
If a new high close on Friday can”t be a top… then Friday shouldn”t produce a new high close. Otherwise, the topping pattern we”ve been tracking isn”t valid.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
The topping pattern that was warned Tuesday, and which was confirmed Wednesday, began tipping its hand Thursday. But it was mixed signals that still probably delay a downleg.
The entire session was spent ranging in negative territory, it probed under prior lows, and it closed negative. That”s “ineffectual pessimism,” which often produces at least a temporary rally.
Also Thursday, the afternoon”s bias environment was exited under the noon hours low and the final hour was entered lower. Sellers gained traction, and should be rewarded by spending the morning under Thursday”s lows.
Each is problematic to the other. A fresh low here could extend down much more substantially — so much for overbought RSIs being retested at Wednesday”s high. Powering higher instead would prevent rewarding Thursday”s sellers.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Thursday”s sellers can be invalidated by maintaining a gap up above Thursday”s highs. Don”t feel sorry for them. They”ll be well rewarded after retesting Wednesday”s high. Otherwise, last week”s “lower prior highs” will be tested next.
The earlier problem has been
The earlier problem has been corrected, and the family pictures of our 1997 summer road trip to Arkansas Springs is now replaced with Thursday”s post-close Market Wrap recording. My apologies, especially for photo #28:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpvjxt
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Thursday”s opening plunge plunged further into mid-morning. A second consecutive lower close would confirm a new downleg underway. Probing lower intraday and closing positive would enable a bottom to begin forming. But a premature recovery attempt that doesn”t first probe negative territory would not be bullish.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night”s rally up to 1220.00 wasn”t any likelier than Tuesday”s gap up to extend higher, still being premature for a bottom. The balance of the session did trend back down to 1206.00, where any lower would have put into play 1185.00. Actually testing 1185.00 can”t be discounted, but a test of the 1200.00 area would be credible.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s gap up to 16.80 wasn”t any likelier to extend, and in fact only dipped back under Tuesday”s 16.66 prior high, which was also the prior week”s prior highs.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 147-00 bounce target”s upper-end was probed Thursday. Closing higher would have suggested the temporary bounce either will be much greater, or that isn”t temporary, at all. Closing essentially flat requires holding 146-14 as support to maintain the bounce potential.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Wednesday”s surge to attack the 51.25 buy signal needed to extend higher without delay to be credible, preferably gapping up above 52.65. Thursday”s open gapped down. An intraday recovery attempt resolved down to fresh lows at 47.70. A late bounce was resisted by what has been 49.00 support. New lows are in-play unless at least 51.25 were recovered aggressively.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already testing the 2.80 pullback limit ahead of Thursday”s EIA report didn”t prevent extending don to 2.69. The report wasn”t being greeted from a position of strength, but at least a lot of selling pressure had been expended already. So, any indication that the reaction is being rejcted — e,g, immediately recovering 2.77 Friday morning — would have potential for extending sharply higher intraday.
Livestox, February 26 2015
Thursday”s Livestox reviewed every single stock currently trading, and every single stock that ever traded, on every exchange in the world. Well, maybe not all of them. But, a lot:
NRTI
SRNA
ERBB
TRTC
INSY
MCIG
GBLX
ATTBF
VPOR
TAUG
DEWM
STEV
TWMJF
CARA
GWPH
CBI (29:00 minute mark)
HAIN
KMI
NTRR
FITX
EAPH
NLNK
OXIS
FNV
Gold
NEM
ABX
CLDX
PPP
SIVB
WTW