Posts by Rod David
Detour surprise.
Bias environment”s fresh low is recovered.
A plunge pierced the 2107.75 bias-down signal just in time to invoke the grace period at 1:20. The signal wasn”t triggered at 1:30. That didn”t prevent trending down anyway to touch the 2101.50 bias-down target.
Trending beyond a bias signal when it”s too late to trigger is “no-bias trending,” which requires being retraced. In fact, the reaction up from 2101.50 has returned to 2107.75.
This morning”s highs should still be retested. But again, like yesterday”s late setup, that might be done overnight.
Livestox, February 26 2015
Thursday”s Livestox reviewed every single stock currently trading, and every single stock that ever traded, on every exchange in the world. Well, maybe not all of them. But, a lot:
NRTI
SRNA
ERBB
TRTC
INSY
MCIG
GBLX
ATTBF
VPOR
TAUG
DEWM
STEV
TWMJF
CARA
GWPH
CBI (29:00 minute mark)
HAIN
KMI
NTRR
FITX
EAPH
NLNK
OXIS
FNV
Gold
NEM
ABX
CLDX
PPP
SIVB
WTW
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 20 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday”s econ calendar is already busy, and with high-profile items that have reliable track records for influencing price action. Sprinkle in three Fed speakers appearing at a symposium, and the morning could be very volatile. Note that the Chicago PMI number is first released privately to institutional subscribers, and reaction to a surprise is possible, valid, and likely to extend when the number is released publicly.
William Dudley Speaks — dove
Loretta Mester Speaks — centrist
Stanley Fischer Speaks — hawk
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2115.75 | 2113.50 |
| …would target | 2121.00 | 2118.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2110.00 | 2107.75 |
| …would target | 2103.75 | 2101.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Back to square-two.
Post-open drop retraced, but not the pre-open drop. Not yet.
This morning”s noN-bias environment is now lapsing. The post-open 2111.75 opening high is being retested. Entering the noon hour above 2112.75 would confirm the post-open drop had been absorbed fully.
Recall that the post-open drop was just a duplication of the pre-open drop. And since the pre-open drop wasn”t likely to become a durable downtrend, the post-open drop wasn”t likely to extend, either.
So, recovering the post-open drop implies the pre-open drop will be recovered, too. That”s 2114.75. Extending any higher than that would target a retest of yesterday”s 2117.75 high, and higher.
2112.25 isn”t likely to fulfill buying pressure from this morning”s upswing. But until also recovering 2114.75, there is vulnerability to another downswing that retest”s the 2103.75 low”s oversold RSIs.