Posts by Rod David
Livestox starts today at 12:15
Livestox starts today at 12:15 ET.* We”ll cover stocks in the previous thread, and any that are requested in the announcement”s thread…
*(That”s PM, not AM.)
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Post-open review
A drop this morning by any other name…
The overnight recovery to 2114.75 was trying to defend its 2112.75 support. Then 8:30”s trio of econ reports triggered a drop back down to and through overnight lows to 2108.00.
The pre-open drop wasn”t likely to have changed the narrative. Neither was the post-open drop. Despite only bouncing to 2114.75 and not actually opening there, yesterday”s highs are likely to be retested before a durable downleg begins.
A post-open bounce tested 2111.00. It resolved back down to and through post-open lows, triggering a sell signal that targeted 2104.25. Its test reacted up in time to overlap the 2106.25 bias-down signal at 10:15, invoking the grace period.
2106.25 was being overlapped again at 10:30, so this is a noN-bias environment. Neither bias parameter is in-play — not a test of the bias-down target, and not an offsetting test of the bias-up signal.
Meanwhile, a buy signal that had triggered above 2106.50 held its pullback limit, and is now extending higher to 2109.50. A fresh post-open high would all but marginalize sellers (they can”t be marginalized so long as the low”s oversold RSIs remain un-retested).
A sudden downdraft to fresh
A sudden downdraft to fresh overnight lows preceded this morning”s pre-open Market Tour. How that affects the potential for retesting yesterday”s high today was discussed:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybmwfc
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s modest gap down probed under the overnight slide down to 2108.75, but didn”t extend it, essentially requiring a retest of Tuesday afternoon”s 2115.75 high. Since Tuesday afternoon”s high had been flawed by failing to hold above the morning”s 2114.25 high, it would be doomed to failure of some sort. In fact, despite probing new highs up to 2117.75, the afternoon”s bias environment was exited back in the noon hour”s 2112.75-2114.75 range, and the final hour was entered below it. The morning”s low was retested down to 2107.25, bouncing to 2112.50 ahead of the close. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.
Overnight action”s new info…
Firming to within 1 tick of yesterday”s 2114.75 noon hour high was suddenly reversed back down to within 1 tick of the Globex open”s 2109.75 low. The reversal was retraced entirely, back into a 3-hour 2112.75-2114.75 range that just tried breaking 1 point lower.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon”s plunge has been retraced back to yesterday”s noon hour high, where we expected this morning”s open to print. Of course, the open is another two hours away, with much news coming before then. A retest of yesterday”s high remains likely today so long as the open isn”t reversing yesterday”s late bounce.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2117.25 would be likely to trigger the 2115.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2112.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2106.25 bias-down signal. Bias-down would likely trigger if the open were exited under 2104.25.
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2117.25 | 2115.00 |
| …would target | 2122.50 | 2120.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.50 | 2106.25 |
| …would target | 2103.75 | 2101.50 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.