Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2745.75 | 2746.50 |
| …would target | 2754.00 | 2754.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2735.25 | 2736.25 |
| …would target | 2727.75 | 2728.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Still digging.
Probing fresh lows, but not stopping.
The overnight rally up to this morning’s 2795.50 bias-up target had reacted back down under the earlier Globex low to 2768.50. 
A pre-open bounce greeted the open at this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal.
A blip-up to 2777.50 reacted down sharply. And relentlessly. No meaningful bounce developed until filling the gap back down to last Tuesday’s 2754.50 cash session close.
The bounce quickly peaked at 2762.52 and soon reversed back down to fresh lows. “Lower prior highs” in the 2751.00 area are being under 2744.00. RSIs are again simultaneously oversold.
Two consecutive sessions trending in negative territory have fulfilled the objective to probe negative territory, if not also under Friday’s lows. That’s the first step to ending the multi-session decline. The second step is to recover a relevant level through a relevant window. Relevant levels to the lower prior highs now being tested include that session’s 2754.50 cash session close, its 2759.25 futures close, the last bounce’s 2762.25 peak, etc.
The trend otherwise remains down, threatening to develop into a new downleg retesting two-week old lows, and deeper.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Crossroads ahead.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap down to 2793.00 opened the door to lower targets at 2781.00 and potentially 2764.00. Both were met, the latter to within 2 ticks as the afternoon bias environment came within view of lapsing. That was the limit for a pullback, and any lower would have begun reversing the two-week old corrective rally — which was avoided already by delaying the test of 2793.00 until Friday. Surging as the bias environment lapsed came within 2 points of the 2793.00 open. Its resistance pushed back down to 2781.00 at the cash session close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Last gasp, or foreshadowing? Globex has told two stories, one of which developed entirely before midnight. Sunday night’s open had initially dipped several points to test what is this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal by several ticks. Its reaction rallied 21 points to within 1 tick of what is this morning’s 2795.50 bias-up target. Then its resistance started telling a different story, which has is back in negative territory and attacking the earlier low. If today’s cash session fulfills its potential to probe and then recover from negative territory (described below), then last night’s highs have established a likely objective.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Three or four important features from Friday tell us what is likely to be this morning’s template. Most prominent is Friday being the second consecutive session spent exclusively in negative territory, and then also that this persistent weakness had avoided retracing back under a prior low. This is a lot of selling pressure to expend without gaining traction for the effort. Also prominent is that Friday satisfied selling pressure at its targets, which were recovered on a closing basis. So, no lower objective was put into play. Two consecutive trending sessions tend to persist into the third, which tends to reverse the trending. So, whether it be an attack on fresh lows this morning or their probe, or a gap up that trends down, the burden of proof would be on sellers to maintain their break through a relevant timing window — and under a relevant level. Absorbing a morning sell-off should be rewarded by launching at least a retest of Wednesday’s highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2772.25 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2775.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2781.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 11/10/18) …One more push coming?
Two consecutive sessions of trending tends to deplete sponsorship. Or, else. The week ended with two sessions spent exclusively in negative territory. Part of the third consecutive session — Monday — can reflect stragglers, but the day should end in rally mode.
That’s the likeliest template to start the week. It may also be the template that ends the two-week old rally, because retesting last week’s could resume the larger decline. Not recovering from early weakness Monday, especially if deep enough, could already resume the larger decline.
We discuss those paths and their specific prices, along with another path higher, during this week’s Saturday Review. A useful Fibonacci tip is also shared for identifying natural support found within gaps.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GE, HD, WIX, CRM, ORCL, AAP, NTES, ACB, CGC,
transcript
—————– (11/10/2018 09:30) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you,
jp: gm
—————– (11/10/2018 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
Mark G: gm
Adam: gm. Can we look at a giant potential Inverse H&s from oct through today
David B: Good Morning
—————– (11/10/2018 09:57) —————–
Mark G: how a seasonal bullishness we are entering play with a decline’s potential – a lot of talks about finishing the year on a high note?
—————– (11/10/2018 09:58) —————–
Mark G: or maybe decline on a bigger pic does not resume until Jan?
—————– (11/10/2018 10:06) —————–
Mark G: flat open Mon is unliklely?
—————– (11/10/2018 10:07) —————–
David B: I think you mentioned 2712 was an ealier pattern for lower lows. What number closing would tell us we are heading to test the recent lows?
David B: earlier
—————– (11/10/2018 10:09) —————–
Mark G: yeah
David B: option expiration week
—————– (11/10/2018 10:11) —————–
Mark G: so the next two weeks would be optimal to get smth done on a downside?
—————– (11/10/2018 10:15) —————–
David B: if see the dow outperforming than this would be less likely for a bear market?
—————– (11/10/2018 10:16) —————–
David B: does it matter which index performs?
David B: will this be a factor?
—————– (11/10/2018 10:19) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: HD, WIX, AAP, NTES, all earnings this week. I will watch recording. Thanks
—————– (11/10/2018 10:20) —————–
David B: CRM,ORCL
—————– (11/10/2018 10:51) —————–
Mark G: thx much
Bill G: Thanks
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!