Posts by Rod David
Trading Plan for 2/25
If another session were to mimic Tuesday”s… then a new downleg could be obvious within hours of that. Probing new highs without gaining traction isn”t the problem — except for sessions that develop almost exclusively above all prior sessions” highs.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Although Tuesday morning”s bias-up wasn”t triggered, its 2114.00 target was pierced by 1 tick. So was its potential for being probed up to 2115.25 at the afternoon”s peak.
Buyers gained no traction for the effort, since the bias environment was exited within noon hour”s range. That”s not necessarily bearish — the final hour”s entry was above both and the 3:10-3:20 timing window trended through the morning”s prior high, so sellers were prevented from gaining traction.
The rally stumbled at the close, too. Despite probing a fresh session high, the morning”s high was still being overlapped. So, not already trending down at Wednesday”s open could spend the morning probing fresh highs.
Overbought RSIs at the 2115.75 high will require a retest, despite the late 3-1/2 point reaction down. Neutralizing the retest overnight is the only credible path down Wednesday morning. Otherwise, trading down first, or not already reacting down from 2115.75, could marginalize sellers into the afternoon.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities) Very little of Tuesday”s session probed back into a prior session”s range. The morning”s bias timing window was spent under prior highs, but a break higher rejected it during the first hour. The noon hour”s momentary dip was recovered to fresh highs. And, yet, the rally gained no traction for the efforts. This observation tends to appear before substantial reversals, even if the reversal proves only temporary.
The very beginning of Tuesday”s
The very beginning of Tuesday”s post-close Market Wrap describes the late setup that all but dictated the peak.A combination of the narrow, relentless uptrending channel, RSI only teasing at overbought, and MACD diverging negatively. The trigger and pullback potential are easy to identify. Oh, we discussed the market, too.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpvymm
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2117.75 | 2115.50 |
| …would target | 2124.25 | 2122.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2109.50 | 2107.25 |
| …would target | 2103.75 | 2101.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
For your convenience, if you
For your convenience, if you haven’t had enough opportunity to check the Activity Feed since yesterday’s Livestox, here’s a compendium of its posts. Search for stock symbols of current interest to you, and join in with any questions. I’ll announce the next Livestox in the morning…
Jo B — ADEP..FALLING knife? OXIS accumulation?
DSpenc — ANGI – parameters for holding long?
CONX – support & resistance?
fennecby — Morning Rod.
Would you mind taking a look at OGI.v and at NDRM?
tamaramessmann — RSX, MBT, DO what are the current relevant levels please?
Cannabiz — Perhaps I’m attracted to the overwhelming difference in the volume of trading that is occurring with UWTI and pot stocks. I would advise following whatever I say at one’s own peril. It’s a beast, and an alive one that’s fit to be tamed! The pot sector may look like this in a bit, once revenue is generated. I doubt anything will come of it until we either hear from uncle Sam or a company starts making money. — “Edited”
Rod David — OGRMF — The nearest indication of momentum possibly reversing up would be to close above .46. Being accompanied by expanding volume would be helpful.
Rod David — NDRM — Not enough complexity to yet be be a pattern. But back above 14.14 would start to suggest a new high in-play.
fennecby — thanks Rod. Posted 10 hours ago
guanito — Yay for oil! knock on wood. Posted 9 hours ago
Cannabiz — Keeping an eye on NRTI for a pop, but refuse to get stuck in any pot stock again, regardless of the minimum damage I might incur. Who likes watching paint dry? BTW, I’d like to apologize in advance if I appear insensitive to anyone who finds themselves caught holding. — “Edited”
tamaramessmann — RSX, MBT, DO what are the current relevant levels please?
Josey — Thank You for the update
Cannabiz — Excellent insight in Livestox as usual. NRTI launching a new Martha Stewart CBD product March 26 in NYC. Could be the catalyst to a break higher buying the rumor.
Rod David — RSX — Holding 16.30 support has potential for extending to 20.85 and to 20.45
Rod David — MBT — 10.54 is still resistance. Now that it has been essentially tested, pullbacks under 8.75 threaten to revisit the low under 6.
Rod David — DO — Resistance at 37, must be recovered to break free from the current trading range.
Cannabiz — I’m encouraged with the continued rise in the ask of UWTI in after hours trading. If crude should post lower tomorrow morning, I may take a bid to add to my position on a pre-market dip. Otherwise, I will wait until after my meeting and the market open to see if there are any supports tested or broken. I remain optimistic. Posted 20 hours ago
Jo B — thanks Rod Posted 16 hours ago
guanito — Thanks Rod. Cannabiz you insensitive curr. NRTI – roll out of products 3/26 at Bouley’s NYC. Hopefully Martha Stewart will show up. Around here a pop is all you get. Posted 8 hours ago — “Edited”
guanito — Interesting that the /CL chart looks good but the UWTI chart looks broken. I guess that’s what leverage will get you. Posted 8 hours ago — “Edited”
Cannabiz — UWTI continues to rise pre-market, won’t buy gaps. They’re a sign to be patient for me. The airing of Citizenfour was eye opening and represents a paradigm shift to me. CYBR, anyone? Especially the implications made of the current administration. Still, the Ds are so much more progressive in their thinking, and I believe a lot more advances will get done even while respecting tradition with them in office, and not just the removal of prohibition. It’s about evolving not destroying, as so many fear based defensive Rs believe. The Rs had better come up with some ideas other than just shooting down anything out of the White House. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio aren’t the answers. Posted 8 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — Giold — Just needs to close positive today to signal the decline has ended. Its longstanding target that was met before yesterday’s open and held, has now been retested post-open and also reversed up sharply. Closing negative today would undermine whether momentum was actually reversing up. Posted 5 hours ago
guanito — tku Posted 5 hours ago
tamaramessmann — AGU and ITB I am long. Could you please analize for stop and target levels Posted 4 hours ago
Rod David — AGU — My maximum upside target has been essentially 112, which is being tested only today. Today’s close must be known in order to calculate any higher target. Meanwhile, upside momentum requires holding 110.75 as support. Posted 4 hours ago
Rod David — ITB — Potential to 29.20 if 26.85 now holds as support. Posted 4 hours ago
Scotty B — GPRO seems to be forming a double bottom in the $44 range? Sellers loosing momentum? FSLR has been good to me. Thanks Posted 3 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — GPRO — Even a valid double bottom must still probe a fresh low to complete. In any case, I’m not considering this to be a double bottom, since volume is expanding into sell-offs. Posted 3 hours ago
tamaramessmann — OGZPY and TOT I would like to add to my long. What are the relevant levels? Posted 3 hours ago
kit650kr — Yo ROD, missed you , any insight on GTLS , Chart Industries. I started a position for DAD at $31.53 on 2/17 & just looked today for the first time since we bought it last week. Can you plz set resistance for us. Posted 2 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — OGZPY — Trying to reverse its downtrend, but has to hold 4.60-4.75 as support Posted 2 hours ago
kit650kr — ROD- Dad also bought into CBI a few mins ago when i wasn’t watching…LOL! anyway he got in at $41.63, can you set parameters for him PLZ? Posted 2 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — TOT — As with last week, if price is still within pennies of where it was one week ago, then parameters from then won’t have changed. A fresh high on volume would be credible at this stage of the pattern for reversing the trend up, but no other buy signal can be identified until then, or until new lows are probed. Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — GTLS — Next higher resistance is 40.50 and then 45.60, Posted 2 hours ago
kit650kr — CANNABIZ: if u thought HBO did good, check out old FRONTLINE on PBS.com. I want to say, not long after 9/11, PBS noticed secret huge below the ground buildings were being constructed all over our country just to spy on everyone, trying to find the terroristic needles in our technology haystack. If I find the exact show I’ll let you know. SCARY! Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — CBI — Pullback needs to hold 38.75-39.55 to maintain potential for 45.60 and 48.25. Posted 2 hours ago
Josey — What would be FSLR new target? 58.+ – 62.00??? Thank You! Also pullback info please. Posted 2 hours ago
kit650kr — ROD, where do u c a bottom for ETP? Posted 2 hours ago
fennecby — Morning Rod and all. Thoughts on WYY and TSEM? Is the assumption that both are breaking out correct? And if so, what would be their likely targets? Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — FSLR — Having tested 57.70, pullbacks must hold 54.70 to maintain potential to 62.60 Posted an hour ago
Rod-David — ETP — The bottom is a lot lower if 63.50 isn’t recovered on sharply expanding volume. Posted an hour ago
Rod-David — WYY — The breakout was Feb 17. And that was just above recent resistance after having probed fresh lows. Prior highs can be probed next, but not necessarily to launch a new rally leg… 1.71, 1.88, 1.98 are all possible targets Posted an hour ago
Rod-David — TSEM — Downtrending resistance from the pullback off of last month;’s high was broken by yesterday’s gap up. That’s not a breakout of the trend, which was already making higher highs and higher lows. The question is whether it’s the rally’s resumption. That would be less credible without closing above 16.50. Posted an hour ago
Cannabiz — You inferred after ATTBF found a new low weeks ago, and then rebounded a bit, that a bottom was still not in because stocks don’t jackknife to recovery and a lower low or a retest of the low would be likely in order to form a foundation for reversal. The stock has been testing the .17 resistance for a while now and is somewhat channel bound. Is the length of time the price has kept it’s current level indicative of a pullback? TIA Posted an hour ago
Cannabiz — C’mon UWTI fill your gap and my order! No sooner said than done! Posted an hour ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — ATTBF — Time elapsed without resuming the decline is not predictive in this pattern. Posted an hour ago
Miss Kitty — Rod, this is a big picture, general question. Based on your experience with the internet stocks in the 90s, where are we in the unfolding of the nascent cannabis industry and how will that likely play out over time in regards to cannabis related stocks. Posted an hour ago
Cannabiz — C’mon Contango……I’m continuing to buy here, with a hope we close lower. I intend to fill the tank. Posted 52 minutes ago — “Edited”
Rod David — Miss Kitty — I still expect that the past year’s ranges will be like rounding errors compared to future prices. Relative to Internet or Biotech blossoms of past, the pace is proving to be much slower. I still expect that the eventual rising tide will not lift all boats, because many of those boats were barnacle-encrusted with new paint jobs to hide the rust. It’s 20-20 hindsight at this point, but perhaps the low barriers to entry allowed into the sector unsubstantial companies at a faster pace than serious investors were attracted. And meanwhile another inhibition to attracting serious investors is the continued regulatory confusion. Whether a Netscape IPO moment, or Hoffman LaRoche buying Genentech, I think the likelihood of those moments hasn’t changed so much as their timing. Until that becomes clearer, the revenue pools (pharmaceutical, recreational, agricultural, miscellaneous) are still just a little out of reach. Posted 42 minutes ago
fennecby — thanks. and TSEM closing over 16.5 might send it where? (looking to take some profits). Posted 41 minutes ago
Miss Kitty — Thanks for sharing your perspective on the overall cannabis industry, Rod. That makes sense and hopefully in the future is will make dollars, and lots of them. :-) Posted 18 minutes ago
Rod-David — TSEM — Potential to 19.300 Posted 11 minutes ago
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Choppiness during Yellen”s testimony Tuesday neither reversed the trend nor resumed it. But not exploiting the opportunity to resume the trend at this pivotal level does suggest the pattern is under accumulation..
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s test of the 1191.50 target wasn”t credible because it only printed overnight, and negative territory was altogether avoided intraday. Tuesday”s retest of Monday”s low had also reacted up above 1197.50, twice, at least suggesting that the decline has ended. A bounce has room up to 1212.00 before signaling a rally is underway.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Expending so much energy to avoid probing again back under last week”s lows only made support indefensible. Tuesday morning”s narrow ranging finally broke lower to retest Sunday”s overnight lows, so any lower low is likely to extend the trend.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s close above 144-30 didn”t waste time Tuesday extending to the 146-14 minimum corrective bounce target, with there still being room up to 147-00 before suggesting a bigger rally is actually underway, and room for a pullback to 145-24 before signaling the bounce has ended.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Tuesday continued ranging within the 49.00-50.50 rock and a hard place. Delaying the probe”s recovery doesn”t help to form a bottom, which needs to begin aggressively to be credible.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Tuesday was in-line with expectations that Monday”s dip to “lower prior highs” would ultimately hold and recover to fresh highs. But it didn”t gain traction for resuming the rally, which now would be signaled by breaking above Tuesday”s high.