Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 19 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Philly Fed is the only regional survey with any reliable influence on price action. And it”s being released Thursday simultaneously with the more influential LEI. That comes one day following Wednesday”s PPI, and gives a more current look at how much inflation might have worked its way into the system.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET
**Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.25 | 2095.75 |
| …would target | 2104.75 | 2101.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.25 | 2089.00 |
| …would target | 2087.75 | 2084.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Refueling buyers is messy.
The overnight ranging back down to 2093.50 had extended down to 2090.00 into the open. Its initial reaction up was reversed to a fresh low testing the 2089.00 bias-down signal down to 2088.50.
But the bias-down signal wasn”t touched until AFTER 10:15. Only the pre-open low was being attacked by then. Bias-down wasn”t triggered so this is a “no-bias” environment. Bias-down wasn”t TOUCHED, so an offsetting test of the 2100.75 bias-up signal isn”t required.
I expect 2100.75”s test anyway. Yesterday”s 2101.50 objective is outstanding above the 2100.75 bias-up signal. And the bias-down signal did hold a test through 10:30. It reacted up almost immediately into a 5-point rally now testing 2093.50.
Exiting the bias environment under 2089.00 would make fresh highs today unlikely. Meanwhile, I”m still assuming the open”s selling was just defensive posturing ahead of today”s events.
S&Ps have started probing under
S&Ps have started probing under yesterday”s late low. Whether or not that is momentary, or durable, was addressed during this morning”s pre-open Market Tour.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbfxjsc
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Three-day weekend volatility continued settling down Tuesday, while also laying the groundwork for extending higher later — a test of the 2087.50 bias-down signal put into play an offsetting test of the 2095.75 bias-up signal at new highs. Fresh highs through the noon hour probed the objective up to 2099.50, and held up long enough to trigger the afternoon”s bias-up signal — it was left outstanding, as more groundwork for extending higher later.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday afternoon had drifted to 2093.25 before a last-minute pop-up. A narrow 2-point range at 2096.00-2098.00 through the night eventually dipped to within 1 tick of 2093.25. Now the original 2-point range is being attacked from below.
If, then…
Yesterday afternoon”s 2101.50 bias-up target became “unfinished business above” that requires being tested eventually. That should be sooner, rather than later, even if only to neutralize the rally”s higher objectives so a downleg can begin. That”s a risk, since that”s the only outstanding objective, and since yesterday afternoon”s probe of fresh highs weren”t maintained. Neither was the afternoon”s probe of fresh highs rejected, so the rally remains intact, albeit vulnerable to reversing down if another fresh high isn”t maintained. Ongoing Grexit drama or reaction to this afternoon”s FOMC Minutes can produce extreme sentiment that is vulnerable to becoming a sentiment extreme. Either way, Friday”s impending expiration should become a catalyst for sudden re-positioning that exacerbates any trending into Wednesday”s close.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2103.00 would be likely also to trigger this morning”s 2100.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2088.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2089.00 bias-down signal.