Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.25 | 2100.75 |
| …would target | 2108.25 | 2105.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.50 | 2089.00 |
| …would target | 2087.00 | 2084.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Trading Plan for 2/18
If the rally has neutralized all upside requirements… then it is vulnerable to reversing down as sharply as it got here. No reversal signal is yet in play. But Tuesday”s new high close did neutralize one upside attraction. And Tuesday afternoon did probe fresh highs without gaining traction for the effort. Meanwhile, FOMC Minutes is released Wednesday afternoon, and expiration is Friday.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Tuesday morning was a great example of all the methodology”s parts coming together to produce a likely resolution. Actually, that belongs more to Tuesday afternoon. The morning was a great example of all the methodology”s parts offering context, and challenging that context along the way to their likely resolution.
First Trade and Market Wrap reiterated the bigger picture likelihood for extending the rally. That context made the bias down signal unlikely to be triggered if tested. It was tested, and didn”t trigger.
Testing but not triggering the bias-down signal puts into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. That objective becomes a requirement if not yet met when the bias environment is lapsing. When knowing the likely destination is higher, pullback limit tests can be held more confidently — if not also bought.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Tuesday afternoon”s bias-up signal triggered, and its 2101.50 target was left outstanding. That context suggests that any immediate pullback would be only temporary.
Tuesday”s Market Wrap lasted a
Tuesday”s Market Wrap lasted a little longer than usual. In case you nodded off before it ended (yes, it did end), here”s the recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpvkss
Late ain’t great, but it can prevent a wait.
Will buyers gain traction for their efforts?
The bias environment”s 2096.00 exit was above the noon hour”s 2094.75 high. But the final hour”s entry wasn”t higher.
That”s not bearish, but it could have been bullish, and wasn”t.
Trending above the bias environment”s 2098.75 high through the 3:10-3:20 window would serve by proxy for what the final hour”s entry missed.
Either way, trending higher into the close remains possible, if not likely. Gaining traction, or not, would be predictive for tomorrow”s price action.
In case you”re not checking
In case you”re not checking the Activity Feed, following is a compendium of recent posts there that might be of interest more widely…
NRTI — Volume did expand Friday, while price rose. But that”s not yet a breakout, which would be a fresh high close. The volume expansion now, upon approaching a breakout level, can be a helpful early warning.
KING — The next higher objective before another consolidation is 18.55, potentially 20.30, probably the lower of the two since January”s low wasn”t retested before recovering. But the bigger picture remains intact, which was to reverse the trend back up from the temporary pullback from Nov-Dec”s head & shoulders pattern.
AFL — Downtrending resistance broke higher Feb 2-3. Now almost two weeks have been spent carefully approaching the prior high up to the 62 area. Meanwhile, volume has been expanding. So long as 60.90-61.20 holds as support, a very aggressive break higher to 64 and 66 is likely.
VDSI — 32 and 34.75 are the likely objective of this fresh high.
Josey — Even if it gets positive again @ today”s close, over 28.20 – 29.70 today?
VDSI — Recovering today”s reversal today would make much higher highs likely
casjf — AXP – Support & resistance?
casjf — UPS – Support & resistance?
AXP — 77.15 – 80.60… A test of 77.15 before trying to rally would make a rally more credible for extending further.
UPS — 97.20 – 103.65
tamaramessmann — KING what is the pullback limit to maintain that 18.55 is in play?
tamaramessmann — ITB- I am long. what is the next target or targets before there is a significant pullback. Thanks Rod.
casjf — IAU – are we reaching a support level for a buy-in here?
tamaramessmann — BP, VLO, TOT- I would like to establish long positions. What are the current relevant levels?
KING — 15.70 pullback limit
ITB — Next higher target is 28, so long as 27.23 holds as support.
IAU — 11.50-11.55 needs to hold if tested, and back above 12 would signal the pullback had ended.
TOT — The stock hasn”t moved in a week, so the parameters identified then won”t have changed.
VLO — Far from any sort of optimal long-entry, having rallied relentlessly 33% during the past 4 weeks. But the recovery isn”t reversed so long as 52.15-53.35 holds as support.
Add any other requests to this thread.