Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Fluctuation doesn”t accurately describe Sunday night and Monday”s choppiness. But it was all recovered before Tuesday”s open. The balance of the session only ranged narrowly sideways, still needing a close above 1.1455 to trigger another breakout.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s “ineffectual optimism” didn”t immediately launch a decline Friday, and neither did Friday”s, which went out testing the 1226.50 bounce limit. But sharply lower lows through Tuesday down to 1203.30 confirm the decline”s momentum remains intact, still targeting 1185.00-1195.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday”s single-day surge to fresh highs had originated from an unstable base, which became obvious by Tuesday”s open rejecting the surge entirely back to Thursday”s 16.77 close. The balance of the opening action trended down to fresh lows at 16.25, next targeting 15.80.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next lower target at 144-18 was test Tuesday”s morning, and then broken on the way to piercing 144-00. An afternoon bounce was challenging 144-18 from below, but now a recovery must close above 144-30 to be credible.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Tuesday morning”s slide to 50.80 filled the gap back down to Thursday”s 51.25 close. Rallying more than $3 from there once again pierced the twice-tested 54.00 highs. There is no bearish reason for the retest at this stage of the pattern, so extending higher without delay is likely.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Gapping up Tuesday didn”t extend higher, and the morning pulled back to test the original 2.70 buy signal as support. Its reaction didn”t recover positive territory, but Wednesday morning should rally through 2.81 for optimal confirmation the pullback was only temporary.
Hesitant morning is leading to a firm afternoon.
Exiting noon at new highs.
This morning”s 2087.50 bias-down signal didn”t require a test. But it was likely to hold if tested. And it did hold through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of this morning”s 2095.75 bias-up signal.
Exploiting the bias signal was delayed by choppiness just under Friday”s close. The ineffectual pessimism made the eventual test of 2095.75 likely to be exceeded when met.
In fact, 2095.75 — which is also this afternoon”s bias-up signal — has been met. And it was easily exceeded through 1:20. Bias-up triggered, putting into play the afternoon”s 2101.50 bias-up. Already, 2099.00 is being attacked now.
There”s another point of room for noise above the bias-up target. And other than having fulfilled buying pressure, there”s no reason why the upleg can”t extend.
Well, there”s one reason — or, could be — which is if this afternoon”s bias environment is exited back under the noon hour”s 2094.75 high, or under its 2091.25 low.
Otherwise, today is on-track to fulfill the minimum outstanding objective for at least one more higher close. And it is being fulfilled by the aggressive rally as forecast by the template we”ve been tracking. Don”t forget the vulnerability that the template suggests after that…
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 18 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday”s pre-open PPI will be as influential as it is high-profile, since it may offer early warning of inflation pressuring interest rates higher. But the afternoon”s FOMC Minutes is always a reliable catalyst for triggering volatility through the close.
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
**PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
**FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
WedEX indicator
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2098.25 | 2095.75 |
| …would target | 2104.00 | 2101.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.00 | 2088.50 |
| …would target | 2087.00 | 2084.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Weekend sellers have gone into hiding.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility through 9:45 had tested 2091.00 but held it, making the 2095.75 bias-up signal unlikely to trigger.
The opening 45 minutes through 10:15 had tested the 2087.50 bias-down signal but held it, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2095.75 bias-up signal.
Having round-tripped down to 2086.25 on the way up to 2092.25, natural support is at 2088.50-2089.25. A dip is testing that now. Back above 2091.50 would signal that the pullback had ended and that momentum targeting fresh highs had resumed.
Meanwhile, the bias parameter can be invalidate only by exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the open”s 2086.25 low.