Posts by Rod David

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…

Friday morning”s retest of December”s highs fulfilled two requirements. It was the minimum likely resolution of the two-week old rally, while it also rewarded Thursday afternoon”s buyers for having gained traction. The afternoon”s slide to 2082.75 threatened to leave positive territory. But that only stretched the rubber band for rallying to fresh highs at 2095.00 into the weekend.

Overnight action”s new info…
Don”t blink, you”ll miss it. Sunday night”s open immediately slid 6 points. News from the Eurogroup talks kept the session under pressure through Monday morning. A late hopeful blip-up attacked Friday”s high, but its hopes were quickly dashed by contradicting headlines that triggered a plunge attacking Friday afternoon”s low. Lower lows at last night”s open probed under Friday afternoon”s low, twice. But hope springs eternal, and it sprang again soon after Europe”s opens, now attacking Friday”s high to within 2 points.

If, then…
A 7-point drop after Friday”s close was followed by a 12-point drop. And this morning”s open is indicated to open down only 2-3 points. That recovery might not hold, or it might yet extend. Overnight patterns rarely influence intraday price action, and these even less so. Sellers weren”t the strong hands that act during liquid environments. Unless bias-down is warned or triggered, we”ll assume the holiday”s round trip reinforces the rally”s intent to probe fresh highs.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2087.50 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exceeding 2097.50 through the open would be likely also to trigger the 2095.75 bias-up signal. But failing to hold 2085.50 would be likely to trigger the 2087.50 bias-down.