Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2060.00 | 2054.50 |
| …would target | 2067.75 | 2062.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2048.75 | 2043.25 |
| …would target | 2043.50 | 2038.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Sellers stilled, buyers stalled.
The extra dip I had described in the First Trade blog post was provided soon afterward, by a blip-down that barely touched the 2039.00 bias-down target as support.
Recovering both the bias-down target AND the bias-down signal could equate to a buy signal, since it would put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters.
But the bias-down target was tested only pre-open. At least the 2044.00 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15 to trigger “no-bias.” That puts into play an offsetting test of the 2055.75 bias-up signal. Nevertheless, I would expect the 2062.25 bias-up target”s test, too.
First things, first. Extending through the open to 2051.50 has been retraced back down to 2044.00. It”s too late to trigger bias-down, and now it”s too late to invalidate the no-bias. The burden of proof remains on sellers.
Having said that, I would consider selling a fresh low in case a more substantial decline is developing anyway.
Good morning! Friday”s reversal of
Good morning!
Friday”s reversal of fortune (trading higher initially, trending down through the afternoon) is teasing at extending down further this morning. We”ll see. Probes of fresh lows are so far all bouncing back up to Friday”s low.
Trending up through the first half-hour should be sufficient evidence that a bigger recovery to new highs is still underway. But if this “risk off” sentiment isn”t reversed, then we”ll stalk dips among high-profile stocks.
Post stock chart requests to this thread, as well as any strategy questions.
This morning”s recording of the
This morning”s recording of the pre-open Market Tour is available here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtzcym
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report was largely retraced before the open. The cash session rallied back to it, and through it, hovering into the noon hour. But the afternoon was essentially the opposite — trending back down into negative territory. The upper-end of the 2041.00-2044.00 target area was attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Bouncing into the cash session”s close at 2050.50 extended nearly 6 points higher.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s 2050.00 open immediately returned Friday”s post-close extension. Then the 2041.00 target was met. Its reaction up to 2047.00 (where I sent an overnight update) was reversed to a fresh low at 2039.50. Its 6-point bounce back up to Friday”s low was retraced entirely, but no lower — at least, not yet. Meanwhile, the Euro”s non-reaction (small circle) to an unbending Greece and a doubtful Greenspan has also reversed (much, much bigger circle).
If, then…
The Euro”s reversal down seems relatively bigger than the ES. They”re timing isn”t in synch, but ES is bouncing again back up to Friday”s 2044.50 low, while the Euro is extending lower. Their relationship has changed a little from earlier, but the door remains open to ES reversing up this morning — although now with a likelihood of one more fresh low actually testing this morning”s 2039.00 bias-down target.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2041.00 would be likely also to exit the bias timing window at 10:15 under the 2039.00 bias-down target, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2050.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2044.00 bias-down signal.