Posts by Rod David
Good morning! Wednesday”s Livestox will
Good morning!
Wednesday”s Livestox will begin at noon ET — I”ll post access instructions during the half-hour prior to that. But this is the thread where you should post your stock chart analysis requests.
Also, a great suggestion was made to offer a “universe” for other non-MJ stocks that are popular among members. I want to get an idea of what that means to everyone individually, so please also post stocks you would want covered there.
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday”s open gapped up to its bias-up 2026.50 target and extended higher from there to fulfill the highest renewed bias-up target attacking 2035.00. Choppy backing-and-filling was likely to be only temporary, but it lasted a little longer and fell a little deeper than usual for the pattern. Regardless, the eventual resolution did extend well above the open”s high to test 2044.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Ranging back down to 2039.00 began extending lower ahead of Europe”s opens. A 10-point surge from barely touching 2033.00 was retraced as quickly to 2039.00, and now almost all the way back down to 2033.00 amid non-conciliatory Greece debt headlines.
If, then…
There is no “unfinished business above” in-play, and yesterday”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their efforts. But the rally”s momentum nevertheless remains intact — with a path to probing above 2059.00-2062.50 intraday — so long as the open does not retrace the last relative low at 2032.00. If not rejected and recovered immediately, that could reverse the trend down to retest Monday afternoon”s range under 2000.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2032.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2035.25 bias-down signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2039.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
The recording to Tuesday afternoon”s
The recording to Tuesday afternoon”s post-close Market Wrap has arrived!
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkxxpk
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2056.50 | 2046.25 |
| …would target | 2059.25 | 2053.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2041.50 | 2035.25 |
| …would target | 2034.75 | 2028.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Trading Plan for 2/4
If Tuesday”s dip had resolved up sooner… then the balance of the session would have trended much higher. Not that adding 10 points was anything to sneeze at. And it avoided a potential plunge setup. But it was hard fought.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
In other words, there”s still pessimism. After gapping up 7 points, and after extending another 18 points, after trending higher through the afternoon… there”s still pessimism.
Pessimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, Tuesday”s 25-point rally is entirely capable of extending higher Wednesday.
Nothing prevents the pattern from extending higher without delay. But nothing requires it, either. Only Tuesday afternoon”s bias environment exit reflected momentum, and the final hour”s entry did not, so an interim dip Wednesday morning is possible.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Gapping up and extending higher through the morning would all but require probing recent highs above 2059.00-2062.50 the same day. Gapping down under the last relative low at 2032.00 wouldn”t necessarily reverse the trend back down, but the session would be on defense.