Posts by Rod David

Reaction down is trying to recover.

The reaction down from 2040.25”s target extended to 2032.00 as the bias environment began lapsing. Even then, the bias environment exit was above the noon hour”s 2029.75 high.

The final hour was entered around 2036.00. That”s not at all above the bias environment”s high, which would have confirmed buyers gaining traction for their effort.

That”s okay, or could be. The 3:10-3:20 timing window can serve by proxy. It just opened, 6 ticks under the high. Fresh session highs at 3:20 would confirm the bias environment”s exit. 

Nothing would be implied from not confirming. But no particular upside action would be required, either.

Marginalized sellers finally squeezed. Already time to squeeze back?

This morning”s renewed bias-up environment marginalized sellers. That information usually wouldn”t have much use, since usually price action would range flat-to-higher.

But declining while sellers are marginalized should trap shorts after testing the range”s lower-end. And those trapped shorts should be squeezed into or soon after the bias environment”s exit.

This morning”s trapped shorts weren”t limited to the range”s lower-end, i.e. its 2026.50 bias-up target. And they weren”t squeezed until coming out of the noon hour. Sellers seem to be stronger-handed than the renewed bias-up suggested.

This afternoon”s late bias-up above 2031.00 fulfilled its 2036.00 bias-up target, and also its next higher objective at 2040.25. There is no requirement to trend any higher. And now the bias-up environment is within view of lapsing at the bottom of the hour.

Back above 2038.50 would be credible for resuming the rally, targeting 2051.00 and higher. Otherwise, back under 2035.00 would start to signal this morning”s high had held its retest, and that momentum is reversing down — targeting well within yesterday afternoon”s range.

Too late to trap marginalized sellers?

The bias environment has lapsed. The sudden and steep surge from 2022.50 stopped being relentless after touching 2030.00. Its reaction down was retraced momentarily, but another reaction down touched 2021.00.

All of which is still above yesterday”s highs. This morning”s marginalized sellers never retook control. But neither were they trapped, by squeezing their shorts to fuel a surge to fresh highs.

Surging is still the character of any credible upleg. Back above 2028.50 is still the main differentiation between trending up or down — but that”s essentially the midpoint of a 5-point channel of noise around it.

Fresh highs would still be vulnerable to reversing down into a more substantial downleg. Extending down without first probing fresh session highs is less deinable at this stage.