Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2037.50 | 2031.00 |
| …would target | 2042.50 | 2036.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2026.50 | 2020.00 |
| …would target | 2021.00 | 2014.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Getting ahead of itself.
Exceeding 2028.50 through 9:45 made the 2026.50 bias-up target likely to be exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Its renewed bias-up target(s) stretched as high as 2035.00. The first half-hour had attacked it already to within 2 ticks by 10:15.
That was the high. Choppy ranging through 10:30 has broken lower. Sharply lower — 2022.25 was just touched.
The premise of a renewed bias-up signal is that sellers are marginalized for the duration of that timing window. This would be irrelevant if that timing window only ranged flat or higher.
But this timing window is dropping. Selling pressure is being expended at a time when it”s unlikely to gain traction for the effort. The renewed bias-up premise says these sellers/shorts are being trapped.
1-minute RSI diverged positively at the pullback”s low. It has reacted up 6 points to test 2028.00. It was sudden and steep, but not yet substantial, so the bounce is not yet proof that the trapped shorts are fueling a let to fresh highs.
But that”s still the premise.
The overnight rally absorbed another
The overnight rally absorbed another pullback to greet the open back at this morning”s bias-up target. What will tell us that the bias-up is being renewed, and what will start to suggest it is holding? Levels are reviewed during this morning”s pre-open Market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvsbrhw
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday morning”s shallow opening strength didn”t attract sponsorship that could recover from testing the range”s lower-end. So, the lower-end was probed to fresh lows at 1973.75. Its 30-point reaction ahead of noon was corrected by 20 points in time for a 35-point rally, testing Thursday-Friday”s 2017.50 close. The final hour”s entry didn”t reflect the rally gaining traction for its effort, but the rally extended higher anyway. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low
Overnight action”s new info…
Dipping through midnight down to 2007.00 was recovered and extended to fresh highs at 2025.00. Monday”s close held a pullback that has recovered to fresh highs at 2028.00.
If, then…
Will Tuesday”s open succeed where Monday”s open failed, or repeat it? Gapping up enough to break free from any attraction back to the lows would likely trend higher through the morning. Otherwise, another shallow gap up would attractive more sellers than sponsorship for extending higher.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2028.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2026.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2014.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2020.00 bias-up at 10:15, and at least test the 2010.00 bias-down signal.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2026.50 | 2020.00 |
| …would target | 2033.00 | 2026.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2016.50 | 2010.00 |
| …would target | 2011.00 | 2004.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.