Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 3 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday”s two Fed speakers are potentially more influential to price action than any economic report already scheduled.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks — dove
10:00 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks — dove
12:45 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2013.00 | 2006.50 |
| …would target | 2018.25 | 2011.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2001.00 | 1994.50 |
| …would target | 1995.75 | 1989.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN , BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Different bat channel, but same bat time…
The 1998.00 overnight high was attacked into the open. But it was no likelier to gain traction and extend. At least, not without holding up through the open.
And the open didn”t hold up.
Quickly reacting down to test 1986.00 also tested Friday”s late low. Sawing through there soon extended down to 1973.25. That”s 15 points of selling pressure before the 10:15 bias timing window.
By then, a bounce had recovered the 1976.75 bias-down target to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. It”s still a bias-down environment, but not with any requirement to trend down further — only the requirement to eventually retest the 1973.25 low whose RSIs are oversold.
Meanwhile, a bounce to 1985.50 may be preparing the low”s retest, which is triggered back under 1983.00 and 1980.75. The low could be retested down to 1971.50. Regardless, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under its 1976.75 bias-down target would strongly suggest the drop is extending.
Sideways overnight action has fluctuated
Sideways overnight action has fluctuated between positive and negative territory, more and more so into positive territory ahead of the open. Getting ready to really probe higher, or just stretching the rubber band to produce fresh lows? Parameters are described in this morning”s Market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/ypyvwrj
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s session was a wide-ranging inside day, spent exclusively in negative territory after gapping down. But it was more interesting in two ways. First was the late-morning reversal up from having trended down post-open, saved by a trial balloon that would seem to relieve Grexit fears. A second highlight was the afternoon bias environment”s exit, which had just rallied back to unchanged (filling the open”s gap), only to plunge 31 points to a fresh session low.
Overnight action”s new info…
Initial firming to 1993.00 was reversed to a fresh low at 1984.00, but that was soon recovered to 1995.00.More sideways ranging since then has included a touch of 1998.00, which is not delaying a reaction back down into the range at 1994.00.
If, then…
France”s support for Greece was leaked yesterday, but so far nothing more concrete has emerged regarding the real stumbling block, which is German. Friday morning”s trial balloon has drawn focus to Grexit. Without a solidly sourced statement sooner rather than later, selling could resume. At least, I would assume as much, since the pattern suggests fresh will be probed today unless opening strength can avoid being too shallow. Probing fresh lows could still be recovered intraday, but probably not after today.
First Trade…
[NOTE THIS MORNING”S REVISED BIAS-UP PARAMETERS]
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1998.75 would be likely at least to test the 2002.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2004.50 would be likely also to trigger bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1994.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up, and increasingly likely to at least test the 1983.25 bias-down signal.