Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Wednesday”s gap down only ranged narrowly sideways. Tuesday”s breakout wasn”t confirmed. That”s not necessarily bearish, whether that opens the door to neutralizing unfinished business below, or to another rally attempt first.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping overnight back under 1287.00 needed to be rejected without delay Wednesday to confirm a retest of the highs is next. The balance of the session consolidated at or under 1287.00. so delaying a recovery past Thursday”s open would start being considered as bearish.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday”s inside day didn”t extend Tuesday”s dip, keeping alive potential for retesting prior highs.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 149-14 support continued holding, including in between pre-open and post-open bounces back above 150-00 — first by a little, and then by a lot in reaction to the FOMC news. The 151-08 high”s retest is likely, and could be probed up to 151-28, so long as 149-24 now holds as support
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Still not recovering above 46.25, Wednesday”s probe of fresh lows attacking 44.00 presents another breakout opportunity that would be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s gap up was as unsuccessful as previous gaps up from this range, once again being required to fill the gap back to Monday”s close. And once again, having filled the gap, a rally through 2.86 and 2.98 would launch a new upleg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 29 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s calendar isn”t sparse, but the highest-profile report is Jobless Claims, which has lost almost all influence on price action.
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2033.50 | 2027.50 |
| …would target | 2038.25 | 2032.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2025.75 | 2019.75 |
| …would target | 2019.00 | 2013.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Done for the count?
Lower objectives tested and held, news coming.
The 2030.50 bias-up signal wasn”t rejected in time to trigger no-bias. Already having tested the bias-up target, too, no-bias would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias -down parameters.
They were met anyway. The 2017.00 bias-down target was tested and retested at the low. That was premature — the drop had lost momentum by violating the 3-minute high of its latest bounce limit test. The 2017.00 target was likely to hold, fulfilling it before strong-handed sponsorship had formed a distribution pattern.
Holding that low was even likelier since the 1-minute RSI avoided oversold territory (3-minute RSI made a higher oversold). Indeed, its retest has reacted up already 10 points to 2026.00.
Entering the noon hour above this morning”s 2022.75 bias-down signal helps to suggest at least this downleg is done. That wouldn”t default to buyers, and any upside potential before the 2:00 ET FOMC statement would likely only drift.
So, we”re not yet assured of a recovery — let alone of avoiding another downleg, which at this stage would be substantial.
Good morning! The more things
Good morning!
The more things change… Despite rallying sharply overnight, this morning”s sell-off finds yesterday”s lows playing defense again. If this isn”t resolved up soon, then this afternoon”s FOMC policy statement will be greeted from a position of weakness. That could be devastating, being this close to the lows that have been thoroughly tested already. Reacting favorably could instead end this pullback and replace it with a substantial upleg.