Posts by Rod David
Post-open review
Back to square none.
The overnight rally to 2046.50 had been retraced to 2028.50 well before the open. Its bounce to 2040.00 had plenty of opportunity to extend higher through the open.
It didn”t
The 2037.25 opening print is also this morning”s bias-up target. A blip-up probed it by 1 point before plunging back down to the 2030.50 bias-up signal. Sideways ranging up to 2036.00 was rejected back down to 2030.50, which was still being overlapped at both 10:15 and 10:30 to avoid triggering bias-up OR no-bias.
Having tested both bias-up parameters, triggering no-bias would have put into-play tests of both bias-down parameters. Already plunging down to 2018.50 suggests the 2017.00 bias-down target will be met, too, anyway.
The rejection of last night”s rally is astonishing. I”m still viewing interim weakness as being defensive posturing ahead of this afternoon”s FOMC statement. But that will depend upon greeting the news from above a relevant resistance — which couldn”t be further from this market”s mind right now.
The substantial retracement of the
The substantial retracement of the substantial overnight rally has almost been substantially recovered. Almost. More to come? This morning”s Market Tour recording discusses that…
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmysbr
Don”t get excited. The last
Don”t get excited. The last blog update”s headline was incorrect, and should have read “The First Trade” as usual at this time of day. It was not actually the Trading Plan for tomorrow”s session. I still have to see what happens today.
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Exiting Tuesday morning”s bias environment back within the open”s 2021.50-2029.75 range had suggested the morning”s probe under Sunday night”s low down to 2013.25 was absorbed. Exiting the noon hour above the open”s range had suggested the recovery was gaining traction. Despite having extended to 2037.00, closing action dropped to within 2 ticks of the opening range”s 2021.50 lower end. The cash session closed at 2023.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday”s late drop began recovering into the futures close up to 2031.25, and out of it up to a fresh high at 2039.00. Despite extending sharply higher well before midnight to 2046.50, a 12-point slide to 2028.50 has erased yesterday”s overnight gains to test the upper-end of yesterday”s 2021.50-2029.75 opening range. Another rally effort is nnow back up to 2038.00.
If, then…
Yesterday”s post-close Market Wrap identified 2041.00 as signaling a bullish session today. That probably seemed a little silly, even while yesterday”s futures close was extending 8 points above the 2023.00 cash session close. The preferable bullish open above 2044.00 must have seemed even further-fetched. Well, the more things change, the more they remain the same: Both levels looked tame when they were being probed by midnight, but yesterday”s 2031.25 has been retraced — and then some, almost 3 points lower. Regardless, the cash session close is still substantially lower, and it is more relevant than the futures close. So long as that holds, at least a morning rally is likely before anxiousness can paralyze price action ahead of this afternoon”s FOMC news.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2032.25 would become less likely to trigger the 2030.50 bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2041.00 would be likely to exceed the 2037.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2037.25 | 2030.50 |
| …would target | 2043.75 | 2037.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2029.25 | 2022.75 |
| …would target | 2023.75 | 2017.00 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.