Posts by Rod David
Trading Plan for 1/28
If not for the added pressure of poor earning surprises… then Monday night”s decline might have begun recovering before the open, and extended higher intraday from there. That extra push lower has now been retraced after hours by the reaction to AAPL”s earnings. Perhaps the downside was a tad overdone.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Because Tuesday afternoon did not probe under the morning”s low before reversing back into the earlier range, the session”s pessimism can”t be labeled as “ineffectual.” Because the afternoon did probe ABOVE the open”s high before reversing back into the earlier range, the session”s pessimism was effective.
Tuesday”s entire session was spent in negative territory. Extending down any deeper through Wednesday”s close — not just through its open — would make a retest of two-week old lows the next likely objective.
But Tuesday”s pessimism can still be invalidated.
The last hour”s break under its 2032.25 sell signal fulfilled its potential down to 2023.00. That held through the close. It was recovered to 2031.00 through the cash session close (and then extended to fresh highs at 2039.00 in reaction to AAPL”s earnings).
Extending overnight to gap up Wednesday above at least 2041.00 would establish a pretty solid base, having retested Sunday night”s low, and absorbing Tuesday”s gap down. Exiting the open above 2044.00 would be optimal. By the same token, Tuesday”s action chipped away at support, and not rallying from it quickly would be vulnerable to probing lower.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Wednesday afternoon”s FOMC policy statement might inhibit trending after late-morning, or encourage a retracement of trending already underway.
Tuesday”s gap down tried extending
Tuesday”s gap down tried extending down. A rally into the afternoon was reversed back to the opening level, ending where the day began. On a similar note, if you play the recording of Tuesday”s post-close Market Wrap in reverse, it essentially looks like this: nageb yad eht erehw gnidne ,level gninepo eht ot kcab desrever saw noonretfa eht otni yllar A .nwod gnidnetxe deirt nwod pag s”yadseuT.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthkjff
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Tuesday was half the battle to proving Sunday night”s retest of Friday”s low had held. Actually closing higher, and then confirming with a second consecutive higher close Wednesday, could form a significant low.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday”s rally helped to confirm the recent weakness was only temporary, at least until retesting the highs to form a more durable top. A fresh high targeting at least 1310.00 remains likely, now so long as 1287.00 holds as support.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday night”s lows were largely recovered before Tuesday”s open, and firmed further through the morning. Fresh highs remain likely so long as 17.88 holds as support.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Pre-open strength extended to attack Sunday night”s 150-29 high, but settled back into the recent narrow ranging around Friday”s high. There is room for more probes above, albeit only temporary, while awaiting another downleg — which would now be triggered under 149-12.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Ugly economic data didn”t encourage any buying pressure, but neither did it trigger a much selling pressure. While this doesn”t equate to being a buy signal, not exploiting the excuse to decline under 46.25 does suggest that sellers are weak-handed.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again Tuesday wasn”t any likelier than prior attempts in this range to launch a recovery. That restrained optimism does allow a break above the 2.98 buy signal to be credible for extending higher intraday Wednesday, even if only to greet Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength that helps to absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.
Livestox, January 27 2015
We covered the following stocks in the following order during Tuesday”s Livestox. Also, the accompanying chat screen conversation is copied & pasted below…
TAUG
HEMP
MINE
Gold
Crude Oil
NE
WLT
CPG
SING
CLF
MSFT
AAPL
NTCXF
ATTBF
FITX
MCIG
GWPH
EAPH
CANV
ERBB
VAPE
AGU
Jo B:set to go
Donna Spencer:I am not normally availabel for live . Shodul i hear or see anything at this point?
Jo B:donna, if u click ”audio settings” to the right, u can check ur sound
Donna Spencer:thank you
Jo B:np
gua nito:hihi
Donna Spencer:I”m good
Jo B:yes. got it
gua nito:no audio
Donna Spencer:i can hear
Samuel Batista:yep
Jo B:i hear it”
casjf casjf:SPX – why so much difference in volume?
Samuel Batista:g2g
rod david:reboot
gua nito:got it
Jo B:arent” lots of people shorting the S&P?
Jo B:welcome back GUAn
gua nito:+
Samuel Batista:my request is CANV
Jo B:good buy in price for HEMP for a quick swing trade
Jo B:Rod isn”t there a gap in MINE at around .005
casjf casjf:ERBB & VAPE — need to get thru 20/50 DMA?
Samuel Batista:NTCXF, when will it be safe to get long?
tamara messmann:SING
Jo B:ok ty
tamara messmann:thanks Rod
tamara messmann:AGU- what are the relavent levels? I am long
tamara messmann:AGU- what would be a good stop?
Jo B:i missed what he just said about MINE. can anyone recap briefly?
gua nito:Tku!
Jo B:ty”
Jo B:so guanito. we buying more MINE or what!! lol
Jo B:Cliff”s is no longer paying a divi
gua nito:I”m long @.0094. Don”t want to hold it below .0085 really. Rod says .0076 is the signal but I don”t care.
gua nito:I haven”t been holding small positions.
Jo B:rod, was it u that said a ”v” pattern returns to that middle point/
Jo B:yes ty
Jo B:that would mean sell wouldn”t it?
tamara messmann:thanks Rod
Jo B:thanks Rod. looking forward to your buy/sell calls
casjf casjf:Thanks, Rod!
gua nito:Tku!
Still in the sand, but still swinging.
Big bounce recovering the open, but that”s not yet a bottom.
The break below this morning”s 2021.50 opening low came AT 10:30 instead of earlier. Sellers got every benefit of the doubt, but the door remained open to that being only a temporary false break.
2013.25 was soon met, but nothing deeper. And not for very long.
A recovery was at least probing back above the open”s 2021.50 low when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. And the noon hour”s exit was probing the open”s 2029.75 high.
All of it in negative territory.
The bottoming pattern is credible. The afternoon may yet extend the recovery. But the rally can undermine itself by extending too high too quickly, and not high enough for long enough. In fact, its 2032.25 bias-up target was being tested at 1:20 instead of exceeded to renew the signal, and now 2028.50 is being tested as support.
Back above 2032.25 would get every benefit of the doubt for extending even higher, next targeting 2035.00, and potentially 2041.00. Exiting the bias environment back in the 2021.50-2029.75 opening range would be vulnerable to sliding through the close.