Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Sunday night”s knee-jerk reaction to Greece”s elections pierced last week”s low. The entire dip was recovered before regular trading hours. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip to 1275.60 filled another gap below. Its retest after Monday”s open didn”t extend down. Back above 1285.00 would signal the break was false, and that last week”s highs would be retested up to 1309.90. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 1268.50.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Lower lows overnight were recovered only temporarily, and extended down post-open to fill the gap back down to Tuesday”s 16.95 close. “Ineffectual pessimism” at last week”s highs has yet to be retested.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight rally to 150-29 was retraced entirely by Monday”s open to range narrowly around 149-23 well through the noon hour. Potential for a corrective bounce remains alive, despite being largely fulfilled Sunday night, while awaiting a new relative low close.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Friday”s follow-through under 46.25 support to 44.00 was reversed back to 46.25 Monday morning. It didn”t extend, but did try fighting off a second consecutive lower close that would confirm Friday”s break.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s opening drop filled the gap back to 2.84 that Friday”s gap up had created. It held its test, so closing back above 2.86 can now be credible for triggering an upleg, which would be confirmed above 2.96.
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Inch by inch.
Extending the recovery with upleg after upleg…
At this stage of the pattern, anything that doesn”t signal or endorse a decline is by default bullish.
This morning”s 2040.75 bias-down had ample opportunity to trigger, and did not. The balance of the morning trend up to enter the noon hour testing 2048.00. This afternoon”s 2048.75 bias-up signal didn”t trigger, but an attack on it that began by 1:30 has extended to 2050.75.
The latter extension isn”t optimal, so its durability is vulnerable — especially since RSIs are oversold at this morning”s post-open 2034.25 low. Having probed a fresh session high during the bias environment, exiting it at 2:30 back under the 2044.25 prior low low would reverse the trend back down for the day.
Otherwise, a retest of last week”s 2059.00 target and the unfinished business above it at 2061.50 remain in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 27 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A busy calendar Tuesday with two high-profile influential reports. And they”re each pre-open and post-open, with plenty of other reports staggered in between. Usually, the morning”s reaction will be the touchstone for reactions to the subsequent reports.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2054.75 | 2048.75 |
| …would target | 2061.25 | 2055.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2047.50 | 2041.50 |
| …would target | 2042.00 | 2036.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.