Posts by Rod David
Post-open review
So bullish, it was bearish…
The overnight recovery from 2025.50 had filled the gap back up to Friday”s 2045.75 cash session close. That”s a lot of buying pressure, but it wouldn”t gain traction for the effort without the opening 15 minutes of volatility also recovering something relevant — like, a prior low like Friday”s 2046.50 low, if not also Friday”s 2049.25 “higher prior low.”
Instead, the 2043.25 opening print soon extended back down to 2034.50. And that was soon recovered, but only back to 2043.25. Price action through 10:15 AND 10:30 narrowed its range around the 2040.75 bias-down signal.
In fact, ranging around the bias-down signal narrowed so much that it was still being overlapped instead of triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. It”s not a bias-down that would require testing the target. It”s not a no-bias that would put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. We don”t have the luxury this morning of a bias signal.
That said, just preventing a decline from gaining traction should default to being bullish for a recovery. The struggle through 10:15-10:30 is already resolving up 6-1/2 points to 2047.25.
Last night”s gap down in
Last night”s gap down in reaction to (the Euro, which was in reaction to) Greece”s elections, has been retraced entirely back up to Friday”s close. Is that enough to gain traction for extending higher this morning, or is it just enough to refuel sellers for attacking overnight lows? This morning”s Market Tour recording is here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmpxyv
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s opening dip held tests of the 2049.25 bias-down signal. Its offsetting test of the 2061.50 bias-up signal became unfinished business above, while choppy narrow ranging defined most of the session. The afternoon bias environment”s retest of 2057.00 reversed down through Pivotal Uptrending support that had formed. Its minimum objective of 2046.25 was probed by 4 points through the futures close.
Overnight action”s new info…
Reaction to Greece”s elections triggered an 8-point gap down that extended to 18 points at 2025.50. But the 2030.00 area held tests as support, eventually recovering to attack Friday”s post-close 2042.25 low. Its first approach missed by 1 tick, but it has now been pierced.
If, then…
Friday”s selling, and now last night”s have likely been a combination of two or three factors: Fulfilling the 2059.00 target Thursday, defensive posturing ahead of Greece”s elections, and now a reaction to their result. A lot of buying pressure has been expended overnight, but still remains well under Friday”s cash session close. That margin must be reversed entirely before the open to prevent the intraday crowd from reacting to Greece”s elections, too. Otherwise, a bullish morning would depend on the open gapping down nearer the overnight lows. Often, greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2039.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2040.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2048.25 would be somewhat likelier to trigger the 2050.50 bias-up.
The Universe, week of January 26 2015
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
The number of uptrending issues dropped, but not as much as the number of downtrending issues dropped. The impact was greater on the improving group, because there were fewer stocks to begin with. Regardless, if the sector is going to continue representing a hideout of sorts from headlines like Eurozone, Middle East wild cards, and Greece elections, then Monday shouldn”t wait very long before resuming and broadening its rallies. That”s going to be difficult with several higher profile issues on the verge of breaking down (TRTC, FITX, ATTBF, etc.).
| Marijuana Stock Technical Trader”s Universe for January 26, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 16 | 15.24% |
| trends* | # flat: | 18 | 17.14% |
| # down: | 71 | 67.62% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACAN | 0.050 | 1.260 | down |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | up |
| AERO | 2.750 | 4.000 | down |
| AGTK | 0.005 | 0.127 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.500 | 1.070 | flat |
| ARNA | 4.200 | 5.300 | up |
| ATTBF | 0.093 | 0.160 | down |
| AVTC | 1.350 | 1.800 | flat |
| AXXU | 0.066 | 0.377 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.074 | 0.154 | flat |
| BLPG | 0.120 | 0.370 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.605 | 0.795 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.032 | 0.094 | down |
| BTFL (cank) | n/a | n/a | down |
| CANL | 1.420 | 1.970 | up |
| CANN | 2.430 | 7.400 | up |
| CANV | 3.470 | 4.750 | up |
| CARA | 9.960 | 12.450 | up |
| CBDS | 7.150 | 10.100 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.002 | 0.015 | down |
| CBIS | 0.057 | 0.088 | flat |
| CGRW (bzcn) | n/a | n/a | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 1.185 | 2.035 | up |
| CTCO | 0.060 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.003 | 0.007 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.025 | 0.100 | down |
| DSCR | 0.001 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.020 | 0.032 | up |
| EDXC | 0.031 | 0.077 | down |
| ENDO | 0.014 | 0.031 | down |
| ENRT | 0.048 | 0.100 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.011 | 0.017 | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.007 | 0.023 | down |
| FRTD | n/a | 0.008 | flat |
| FSPM | 0.018 | 0.460 | down |
| FULL | 4.380 | 5.230 | down |
| FWDG | 0.005 | 0.018 | down |
| GBLX | 0.208 | 0.486 | down |
| GRCU | 0.003 | 0.008 | down |
| GRNH | 0.090 | 0.174 | flat |
| GWPH | 72.500 | 81.500 | flat |
| HEMP | 0.032 | 0.048 | flat |
| ICBU | 0.008 | 0.016 | down |
| IGPK | n/a | n/a | down |
| IGRW | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.095 | 0.140 | down |
| INCC | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| INSY | 44.500 | 51.700 | up |
| ITNS | 0.006 | 0.011 | down |
| LATF | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| LXRP | 0.084 | 0.129 | up |
| MCIG | 0.132 | 0.222 | flat |
| MDBX | 3.720 | 7.320 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.168 | down |
| MDRM | 0.024 | 0.060 | down |
| MINE | 0.009 | 0.014 | up |
| MJMD | 0.011 | 0.082 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.020 | 0.499 | down |
| MJNA | 0.099 | 0.160 | down |
| MJNE | n/a | n/a | down |
| MNTR | 0.810 | 1.550 | up |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.000 | 0.380 | down |
| NDEV | 0.200 | 0.440 | flat |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.048 | down |
| NTRR | 0.050 | 0.220 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.009 | 0.021 | down |
| OXIS | 0.013 | 0.044 | up |
| PAUFF | n/a | n/a | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.263 | 0.426 | flat |
| PMCB (nvlx) | 0.098 | 0.188 | down |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | flat |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.030 | down |
| QEDN | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| REDG | 0.001 | 0.003 | up |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | down |
| SING | 0.002 | 0.009 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.198 | 0.283 | down |
| SRNA | 0.303 | 0.550 | down |
| STEV | 0.071 | 0.100 | down |
| TAUG | 0.012 | 0.020 | down |
| THCZ | 0.007 | 0.017 | down |
| TRTC | 0.213 | 0.268 | down |
| TURV | 0.410 | 0.775 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.490 | 2.040 | down |
| UPOT | 0.340 | 0.900 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.490 | 0.930 | down |
| VAPR | 0.050 | 0.120 | flat |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.022 | 0.040 | up |
| VPCO | 0.820 | 1.290 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| VRCI | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| WDHR (anyi) | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| WOGI (cybk) | 0.002 | 0.008 | down |
| XTRM | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| XXII | 1.110 | 1.560 | down |
| ZDPY | n/a | n/a | n/a |
This weekend’s Saturday Review recording.
The first several minutes of this weekend”s Saturday Review is a detailed description of the “pivotal uptrending support” setup. It identified the timing of Friday”s late afternoon drop and its minimum target. Watch for that reasaon, alone. An otherwise choppy day nevertheless ended on a high note for us, because of that one setup.
A description of “afternoon traction” is included next. The market”s bigger picture outlook is reviewed, along with Sunday night / Monday morning plays. Several stocks are also reviewed by request.
No transcript will be available this week, but the meeting”s chat is printed below. The drawing to give away a majestic 40-acre garden in London was postponed due to the owner still not accepting my offer for the property. Come on, Ma”am!
Click here for the Saturday Review recording
Enjoy the weekend…
David B: good morning
Mark G: gm
charles d: hi
Mark G: u didn”t mention a possibility of continuing pullback down to 38 or 31 that should recover
Mike D: Sorry. I was late so maybe this was mentioned. Is the ES doing just one big pivot reversal?
Bill G: Based on the character of the 1/16 low ,do you expect new highs to fail or are you neutral as to the outcome
Mike D: yes
Mike D: i thought i saw a longer term chart with a trend linedrawn under the lows. think weeks
Mike D: y
Mike D: start at AUG 7 low
Mark G: any expecation on the timing of the high”s retest – it may not happen for a week or two?
Mike D: correct
Mike D: ty
David B: above 2075 would that indicate it will be agressive higher?
Mark G: why do u consider the base of the rally from 1970 weak – because it didn”t spend enough time forming a bottom there but rallied from a retest of the prior low?
David B: is the new thing now we get a central bank to do a QE and when they finish the next one starts?. my point is is this why we have not had a bear market. what is your feeling about what they are doing?
David B: GOOGL,AMZN
David B: maybe because of earnings this week?
Mark G: CPLP update – probed above 9 but never got to 10 and reversed down on increasing volume but still holding 8.61 – is the rally still has potential to 10?
David B: does the 490 low need to be tested?
Mark G: or rally is over on CPLP?
David B: yes
tom p: panw,pbyi
Mark G: pullbck then should hold
David B: fed meeting this week and end of the month window dressing. do you think this will have any impact on the market?
tom p: thx
David B: MSFT
tom p: up huge yesterday
tom p: thx
Mark G: thx much
David B: thanks
charles d: tks