Posts by Rod David
Ready for Thursday’s ECB statement?
Ready for Thursday”s ECB statement? Perhaps this recording of Wednesday”s post-close Market Wrap will get you in the mood. That”s creepy.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmpyft
The watched pot is simmering.
Sideways ranging into ECB announcement.
This afternoon”s no-bias trending under the 2021.00 bias-down signal dipped to 2016.25 before recovering. And that was only after retesting its oversold RSIs while RSIs diverged positively. The reaction up is testing 2027.00.
The afternoon was likely only to drift and not trend. It drifted down during the no-bias environment. It drifted back up through the bias environment”s exit and into the final hour.
Now it”s free to drift back down again — still not trending, but bouncing from one end of a range to another.
Back above 2027.25 would marginalize sellers for the day. Meanwhile, back under 2024.00 would target 2021.00 again. That”s slim pickings ahead of tomorrow morning”s pre-open ECB announcement.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping up Wednesday was extended slightly higher after a reaction down had attacked Tuesday”s close. That wasn”t deep enough to fill the gap, and the optimism prevented the higher high from extending. Its retracement tested the 1.1575 pullback limit that keeps the door open to rallying more durably.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to attack the 1307.00 overnight high was soon reversed into negative territory testing 1284.50.Avoiding a close under 1287.50 keeps alive the likelihood for retesting 1307.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight and gapping up to test 18.50 was reversed sharply and quickly down to 18.00, but still held above prior highs. The potential pullback to 17.56 remains alive.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday night”s 61.8% retracement back to 150-08 reacted down Wednesday to attack 148-23 within 4 ticks, whose break would launch a new extended downleg. Back above 149-24 would instead target a retest of Friday”s high up to 151-28.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Popping up in reaction to a leak of Thursday”s ECB QE did help to establish that a relevant support was being tested. Aggressive uptrending is likely if a bottom has formed, and any shallower rallying would be suspicious. This week”s EIA report is delayed one day until Thursday due to Monday”s holiday.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing 2.98 resistance pre-open and gapping up does help to confirm that the pullback is being stalked. A post-open dip avoided filling the gap back down to Tuesday”s close before recovering to a post-open high. It”s not an optimal bottom, but Thursday”s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength that could more easily absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction.
Waiting for the other shoe to levitate.
Limited trending potential ahead of tomorrow”s ECB QE.
This morning”s 2018.75 bias-up signal ultimately triggered late. That”s okay. Exceeding its 2025.25 bias-up target by 7-1/2 points compensated for the delay.
The next higher objectives were 2029.50 and 2033.00. Both have been essentially met, and held.
So long as 2027.00 isn”t recovered, a pullback should drift down to 2021.75 or 2018.75 without reversing the trend down. Above 2027.00 would likely retest this morning”s high.
Yesterday afternoon”s buyers have been rewarded for gaining traction, and doesn”t require any more upside.At least, not to reward yesterday”s buyers. There is room for a lot of noise either way this afternoon while awaiting tomorrow”s ECB news. Actual trending ahead of it isn”t likely.
Livestox, January 21 2015
Stocks covered in Wednesday”s Livestox, and in order, are:
NFLX — 404 and 414 resistance being tested now
FEYE — Almost any positive close today would be bullish
GWPH — Almost any positive close today would be bullish
ARNA — Testing lower-end of pullback limit, preferred close is above 5.30
AMZN — Retracing today”s surge would be bearish
HAL — Room to firm further but not much before retesting lows
ISRG — Pessimism at the high is potentially bullish from contrarian perspective
Z — Downside leader if canary in the coal mine for weakening housing sector
GSK — Closing above 44 probably targets 48.50
CLF long / HAL short — true hedge position, 1:4 ratio
TRTC — Beware fresh lows
TAUG — Expending a lot of energy avoiding the inevitable
MINE — Still not closing above resistance
ATTBF — Too much time spent at support not to break under it
Gold — Near-term pullback underway, then should retest today”s high