Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 22 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s highlight, if not the week”s, is the ECB monetary policy meeting, widely expected to announce a quantitative easing program.
**ECB policy statement (QE expected)
2:30 PM local time
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2040.00 | 2033.00 |
| …would target | 2045.25 | 2038.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2027.00 | 2021.00 |
| …would target | 2021.50 | 2015.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
This morning”s LivestoX starts at
This morning”s LivestoX starts at 10:45am ET…
Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Other requirements can be found here:
http://marketfy.com/product/stock-technical-trade-alerts/blog/1143/view/60141/
Post-open review
Overnight pullback, and then some, retraced entirely.
The overnight pullback from 2021.50 had retraced the origin of yesterday”s last surge from the 2008.00 area. Not rejecting it could have launched a reversal back to last week”s lows.
But that wasn”t the premise. Yesterday”s rally had gained traction for its effort, so the premise was that its buyers would be rewarded with control of this morning”s bias environment.
Not recovering would have invalidated the premise. But after fulfilling the potential retest of pre-open lows down to 2006.25 described during the Market Tour, word leaked about tomorrow”s ECB QE. Despite its size being criticized, the market surged to within 1 point of this morning”s 2025.25 bias-up target.
Its reaction down to 2012.00 didn”t recover the 2018.75 bias-up in time to trigger. It was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And the premise of rewarding yesterday”s buyers says that either it will trigger, or not triggering will be ignored by no-bias trending.
Good morning! First, today”s Livestox
Good morning!
First, today”s Livestox is at 10:45 AM ET. Look for login instructions after the open.
Second, the market”s overnight pullback just recovered entirely by a surge. Its catalyst was leaked plans for tomorrow”s ECB policy statement. Although criticized for being too small, the leak at least confirms some action is forthcoming.
Livestox will look at that, and at actionable stocks along with updating older coverage, including:
FEYE — Bouncing back from its test of 31.50-32.65 support, tested 33.95 resistance yesterday. Closing above 33.95 today on expanding volume would likely rally into and out of the weekend.
GWPH — Its pullback into expiration attacked 72.50 support. Closing today above 76 on expanding volume would make the 82.25 resistance test likelier. But the bounce potential is reduced after today.
NFLX – Expiration closed above 328.35 resistance, avoiding yesterday”s strong post-close reaction to earnings. Upside potential to 404 or 414.
ARNA — Testing the lower-end of its 4.90-5.15 pullback limit.
Monitoring TSLA, AMZN, PCLN, HAL, ISRG, SBUX, Z, GSK, TRTC, TAUG